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Bahia vs Flamengo Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, October 05, 2025)

Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 27

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: Pereira R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Israel	Sport 4
Mexico	Fanatiz
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones
Suriname	SCCN
Usa	Fanatiz


	Bahia		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.5	1.73	Watch
	5	3.6	1.72
	4.95	3.55	1.7
	5.56	3.65	1.73
	5.09	3.46	1.73	Watch
	5.09	3.7	1.74	Watch
	5	3.55	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.17 ↑ (4.5)	3.57 ↑ (3.4)	1.72 ↓ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
18.3%

Draw
26.5%

Flamengo
55.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.7%

27.4%

51.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.3%

26.9%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	11.1%	77.8%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Flamengo will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Flamengo (1.89) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Flamengo will win (2 of 3 users predict this - 66.67%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
96. Ronaldo Strada (G) 2. Gilberto 33. David Duarte 5. Rezende 25. Iago Borduchi 26. Nicolas Acevedo 6. Jean Lucas 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 7. Ademir 12. Willian Jose 77. Tiago	1. Rossi A. (G) 22. Emerson Royal 13. Danilo 3. Leo Ortiz 6. Ayrton Lucas 21. Jorginho 18. de la Cruz N. 10. de Arrascaeta G. (C) 16. Samuel Lino 9. Pedro 15. Carrascal J.
Substitutes
8. Cauly 1. Danilo Fernandes (G) 63. David Martins 83. Fred Lippert 4. Kanu 57. Kaue Junior 37. Kayky 44. Luiz Gustavo 15. Michel Araujo 55. Sidney Duarte 70. Vitinho 66. Ze Guilherme	29. Allan 27. Bruno Henrique 33. Cleiton 11. Everton 52. Evertton Araujo 23. Juninho 7. Luiz Araujo 25. Matheus Cunha (G) 50. Plata G. 2. Varela G. 17. Vina M. 64. Wallace Yan
Coaches
Mucke R.	Filipe Luis

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Danilo 🟥,
16', Pedro ↓, Cleiton ↑,
21', Willian Jose 🟨,
21', de la Cruz N. 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Willian Jose ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', de la Cruz N. ↓, Luiz Araujo ↑,
46', Samuel Lino ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
46', Carrascal J. ↓, Plata G. ↑,
57', Ademir ↓, Kayky ↑,
57', Tiago ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
67', Willian Jose ↓, Cauly ↑,
68', de Arrascaeta G. ↓, Wallace Yan ↑,
72', Gilberto 🟨,
75', Wallace Yan 🟨,
78', Wallace Yan 🟨,
87', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Kaue Junior ↑,
89', Kayky 🟨,
90+1', Jorginho 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 0.

Recent form of Bahia has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Flamengo is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Flamengo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Flamengo is the team to beat.

There will not play in Bahia: Arias S. (Yellow Cards) Caio Alexandre (Hamstring Injury) Erick (Hamstring Injury) Erick Pulga (Hamstring Injury) Gabriel Xavier (Yellow Cards) Joao Paulo (Knee Injury) Kanu (Muscle Injury) Luciano Juba (Yellow Cards) Rodrigo (Yellow Cards) Ruan Pablo (Inactive) Sanabria M. (Red Card)

There will not play in Flamengo: Alex Sandro (Yellow Cards) Leo Pereira (Yellow Cards) Pulgar E. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Bahia: Luciano Juba (Injury) Ramos S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Flamengo: Michael (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 18:42. (average 0.9:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:18. (average 1.1:2).

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Last Results with these Odds

Flamengo - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 51.83%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
01.10.25	Botafogo RJ - Bahia	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Bahia - Palmeiras	1:0 ✺
24.09.25	Vasco da Gama - Bahia	3:1 ✺
20.09.25	Ceará - Bahia	1:1 ✺
15.09.25	Bahia - Cruzeiro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLTL
- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
02.10.25	Flamengo - Cruzeiro	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Corinthians - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.09.25	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	1:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
21.09.25	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.09.25	Flamengo - Estudiantes La Plata	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Flamengo - Bahia	1:0
05.10.24	Bahia - Flamengo	0:2
Copa do Brasil
12.09.24	Flamengo - Bahia	1:0
28.08.24	Bahia - Flamengo	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
20.06.24	Flamengo - Bahia	2:1
30.09.23	Flamengo - Bahia	1:0
13.05.23	Bahia - Flamengo	2:3

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