Match Info

Brasileiro Women - Round 8

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Joia da Princesa (Feira de Santana)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, N Sports, Sky+, Vivo Play


	Bahia		Grêmio Porto Alegrense

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.3	3.4
	1.95	3.2	3.5
	1.91	3.58	3.85
	1.92	3.5	3.82	Watch
	1.85	3.1	3.6
	1.86	3.52	4.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.62)	3.37 ↓ (3.95)	3.7 ↓ (4.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
48.1%

Draw
27.1%

Grêmio Porto Alegrense
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

23.5%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

22.5%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bahia's form might have worsened.

Grêmio Porto Alegrense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Grêmio Porto Alegrense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bahia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Porto Alegrense than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Grêmio Porto Alegrense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Bahia - Grêmio Porto Alegrense Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Yanne (G) 15. Carol Martins 28. Cassia (C) 11. Dani 20. Ellen Santana 4. Nalon N. 27. Raquel 17. Roqueline 7. Rosa W. 77. Suelen 64. Tchula	12. Lucilene (G) 2. Allyne 21. Brito 27. Dani Barao 99. Giovaninha 77. Gisele 13. Leidiane 6. Montoya D. 7. Pini 20. Ramos M. 3. Rodriguez M.
Substitutes
3. Aila 6. Ana Julia 2. Dan 71. Eduarda Tosti 9. Gica 88. Helo 22. Isa Cruz (G) 97. Isa Fernandes 24. Julia Kerolyn (G) 13. Mila Santos 14. Rute Deveza 70. Terra M.	10. Brenda Woch 8. Drika 19. Dudinha 17. Luana Spindler 32. Maria 95. Maria Dias 1. Raissa Tayna (G) 11. Rodriguez Y. 9. Valeria Paula

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Pini ⚽,
21', Nalon N. ↓, Mila Santos ↑,
22', Brito 🟨,
44', Suelen 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Dani ↓, Rute Deveza ↑,
48', Leidiane 🟨,
60', Ellen Santana ↓, Dan ↑,
71', Montoya D. ↓, Brenda Woch ↑,
84', Gisele 🟨,
87', Suelen ↓, Isa Fernandes ↑,
88', Tchula ↓, Gica ↑,
90+6', 0 - 2, Pini ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Brasileiro Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12).

Bahia is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Grêmio's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bahia might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1.4:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia Women
Brasileiro Women
20.04.26	Flamengo - Bahia	1:3 ✺
01.04.26	Bahia - América Mineiro	3:1 ✺
28.03.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Bahia	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Bahia - Santos	3:1 ✺
16.03.26	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 WWWWW
- Grêmio Porto Alegrense Women
Brasileiro Women
20.04.26	São Paulo - Grêmio Porto Alegrense	3:1 ✺
03.04.26	Grêmio Porto Alegrense - Vitória Salvador	3:0 ✺
28.03.26	Internacional - Grêmio Porto Alegrense	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Ferroviária - Grêmio Porto Alegrense	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Grêmio Porto Alegrense - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil Women
06.08.25	Bahia - Grêmio Porto Alegrense	1:0
Brasileiro Women
12.04.25	Grêmio Porto Alegrense - Bahia	1:0
Brasil Ladies Cup Women
22.12.24	Bahia - Grêmio Porto Alegrense	1:2 penalties
Brasileiro Women
25.03.23	Bahia - Grêmio Porto Alegrense	3:2
13.05.21	Grêmio Porto Alegrense - Bahia	4:2

Bahia - Grêmio Porto Alegrense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide