Match Info

Southern League Premier Central - Round 7

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Banbury United		Leiston

	1	X	2
	2.50	3.20	2.40
	2.55	3.05	2.50
	2.54	3.47	2.49
	2.59	3.47	2.53	Watch
	2.50	3.30	2.45
	2.50	3.28	2.45
	2.55	3.30	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.33)	3.3 ↓ (3.5)	2.47 ↓ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Banbury United
35.8%

Draw
27.5%

Leiston
36.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.7%

25.7%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

25.8%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Banbury United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Leiston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Banbury United than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiston than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Banbury United - Leiston Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Steele L. ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, McFadden K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', 1 - 2, Mills A. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Banbury won 2.

Banbury has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Leiston's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Leiston may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Banbury won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Banbury won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Leiston	12	4	3	5	22:23	-1	15
18	Banbury	14	3	4	7	16:26	-10	13

Last Results with these Odds

Banbury United - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 38.74%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Leiston - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 35.53%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Banbury United
English FA Cup
09.09.26	Exmouth Town - Banbury United	2:1 ✺
English Southern League Central Division
31.08.26	Anstey Nomads - Banbury United	3:0 ✺
29.08.26	Banbury United - Stourbridge	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Rushall Olympic - Banbury United	3:2 ✺
15.08.26	Banbury United - Real Bedford	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLTLL
- Leiston
English Southern League Central Division
31.08.26	Bury Town - Leiston	4:3 ✺
29.08.26	Leiston - Redditch United	3:1 ✺
22.08.26	Stourbridge - Leiston	2:2 ✺
15.08.26	Leiston - Rushall Olympic	1:2 ✺
11.08.26	Leiston - Bishops Stortford	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League Central Division
28.03.26	Leiston - Banbury United	1:0
16.08.25	Banbury United - Leiston	1:1
05.04.25	Leiston - Banbury United	3:0
24.08.24	Banbury United - Leiston	1:0
12.02.22	Leiston - Banbury United	0:2
19.10.21	Banbury United - Leiston	3:2
16.11.19	Leiston - Banbury United	1:5

Banbury United - Leiston