Match Info

BRAZIL: Baiano - Round 5

Date: 28 January 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Municipal Agnaldo Bento dos Santos (Porto Seguro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	TVE Bahia


	Barcelona de Ilhéus		Atlético de Alagoinhas

	1	X	2
	1.95	2.9	3.7
	2	2.65	3.5
	2.1	2.9	3.81
	2.02	2.98	3.87
	1.9	2.86	4.1
	1.98	3.08	3.72
	2	2.65	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.3)	2.86 ↓ (2.94)	3.74 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona de Ilhéus
44.9%

Draw
31.3%

Atlético de Alagoinhas
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

30.3%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.8%

31.1%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona de Ilhéus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Barcelona de Ilhéus's performance.

Atlético de Alagoinhas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético de Alagoinhas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona de Ilhéus than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Barcelona de Ilhéus that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético de Alagoinhas than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético de Alagoinhas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Barcelona de Ilhéus - Atlético de Alagoinhas Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Barcelona will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Atlético Alagoinhas will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rafael Copetti (G) 10. Cadu 3. Clebson 9. Eydison 11. Gianlucas 15. Guimaraes 7. Hippolito 22. Jeferson Neves 14. John Lessa 5. Lidio (C) 6. Willian Bahia	1. Giovani (G) 6. Anderson Santos 13. Davisson 11. Felipe Cardoso 10. Geovani 7. Gilmar (C) 17. Gradici A. 3. Jadson Sergipano 8. Lucas Lucena 4. Lucas Sales 5. Menezes
Substitutes
13. Ale Santos 17. Andrey 24. Franca M. 4. Jaques 21. Joao de Deus F. S. 25. Juan Gauto 19. Lucio Maranhao 20. Nadson 8. Ramires 16. Ribeiro Veloso R. P. 12. Simoes Viana W. (G) 18. Willian Kaefer	25. Batista Santos V. J. 20. Dondom F. 12. Edvaldo (G) 2. Jefferson 15. Joao Pedro 18. Kaua 21. Luciano 19. Relry 9. Rick Sena 22. Rikelm 14. Souza M. 16. Victor Luiz

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Jadson Sergipano ↓, Souza M. ↑,
27', Hippolito 🟨,
29', Eydison 🟨,
33', Geovani 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Cadu ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Eydison ↓, Maranhao L. ↑,
57', Lucas Lucena ↓, Victor Luiz ↑,
71', Gianlucas 🟨,
72', Hippolito ↓, Willian Kaefer ↑,
72', Guimaraes ↓, Ramires ↑,
74', Gradici A. ↓, Luciano ↑,
74', Geovani ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
76', Rafael Copetti 🟨,
83', Lidio ↓, Jaques ↑,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 8 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Baiano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Barcelona could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Barcelona will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Barcelona won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:2 (average 0.7:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Barcelona won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barcelona de Ilhéus
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
22.01.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Jacobina	2:2 ✺
18.01.25	Juazeirense - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:0 ✺
15.01.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Jequié	0:0 ✺
11.01.25	Vitória Salvador - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
04.01.25	CS Alagoano - Barcelona de Ilhéus	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TTTTL
- Atlético de Alagoinhas
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
25.01.25	Atlético de Alagoinhas - Jequié	0:0 ✺
21.01.25	Porto SC - Atlético de Alagoinhas	1:1 ✺
16.01.25	Bahia - Atlético de Alagoinhas	0:1 ✺
11.01.25	Atlético de Alagoinhas - Colo Colo de Ilhéus	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
28.12.24	Atlético de Alagoinhas - Jacuipense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
03.03.24	Atlético de Alagoinhas - Barcelona de Ilhéus	1:0
11.01.23	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Atlético de Alagoinhas	1:1
27.01.22	Atlético de Alagoinhas - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:1

Barcelona de Ilhéus - Atlético de Alagoinhas: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide