Match Info

UEFA Nations League - League C - Round 3

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Illovszky Rudolf Stadion (Budapest)

Referee: Tsakalidis A. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport OTT 5
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Belarus	Sport TV
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	MAXtv To Go, SportKlub 12
Denmark	TV2 Play
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	UEFA TV
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Iceland	Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Japan	DAZN Japan
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport OTT 5
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport PPV 2
Russia	Okko Sport
San-marino	San Marino RTV
South-africa	SuperSport OTT 5
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus, FOX Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+


	Belarus		San Marino

	1	X	2
	1.08	10.00	21.00
	1.08	9.75	31.00
	1.08	11.00	30.00
	1.09	14.00	48.00
	1.08	11	28	Watch
	1.06	13.00	32.00
	1.10	10.80	22.00	Watch
	1.08	9.60	30.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.08 ↓ (1.14)	11.14 ↑ (8.4)	30.25 ↑ (26)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belarus
88.3%

Draw
8.6%

San Marino
3.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

84.8%

11.5%

3.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belarus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

San Marino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	15.4%	7.7%

Belarus - San Marino Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Belarus will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). San Marino will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Belarus: 54% – 99.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Belarus (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2.5 - Belarus (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (3.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Belarus (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pavlyuchenko P. (G) ML Vitebsk 6. Begunov R. Din. Minsk 20. Volkov Z. ML Vitebsk 13. Gomanov K. ML Vitebsk 2. Pechenin K. Krylya Sovetov Samara 9. Ebong M. CSKA Sofia 14. Yablonskiy E. (C) Asteras Tripolis 22. Kontsevoy A. ML Vitebsk 10. Gromyko V. ML Vitebsk 8. Simanenka T. FC Gomel 23. Melnichenko T. FC Porto	1. Colombo E. (G) Gzira 2. Benvenuti G. Fidelis Andria 5. Cevoli M. Juvenes/Dogana 15. Pasolini M. Sammaurese 3. Giocondi S. Tre Fiori 10. Zannoni S. 8. Capicchioni L. Tropical Coriano 17. Golinucci A. (C) Virtus 21. Lazzari L. 11. Giacopetti N. La Fiorita 9. Nanni N. Arzignano
Substitutes
11. Barkovskiy G. Polonia Warszawa 4. Bocherov V. ML Vitebsk 15. Galyata D. Aris Limassol 5. Kalinin V. Din. Minsk 16. Kovalev A. Fakel Voronezh 12. Kudravets A. (G) Din. Minsk 21. Lapoukhov F. (G) CSKA Sofia 17. Lisakovich V. Tobol 19. Lukashov A. Orenburg 18. Malashevich E. Din. Minsk 7. Shumansky A. Akron Togliatti 3. Tikhomirov I. Isloch Minsk	23. De Angelis M. (G) Virtus 18. Dell Balda E. San Marino Academy 4. Fabbri F. Tropical Coriano 20. Giulio M. B. San Marino Academy 13. Hoel L. (G) Thionville 16. Meloni C. 22. Mularoni M. La Fiorita 19. Pancotti S. Folgore 7. Protti N. San Marino Academy 6. Rossi D. Foligno 14. Salicioni F. Entella 12. Tosi A. Lucchese
Coaches
Gancharenko V.	Cevoli R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Nanni N. 🟨,
42', Golinucci A. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Golinucci A. ↓, Mularoni M. ↑,
46', Simanenka T. ↓, Lisakovich V. ↑,
46', 1 - 0, Kontsevoy A. ⚽, Pechenin K. (A),
54', Begunov R. 🟨,
55', Begunov R. ↓, Kalinin V. ↑,
55', Gromyko V. ↓, Shumansky A. ↑,
58', Giacopetti N. 🟨,
65', 2 - 0, Shumansky A. ⚽, Pechenin K. (A),
67', Giocondi S. ↓, Tosi A. ↑,
67', Lazzari L. ↓, Pancotti S. ↑,
68', 3 - 0, Ebong M. ⚽, Pechenin K. (A),
69', Ebong M. ↓, Bocherov V. ↑,
73', Capicchioni L. 🟨,
74', Melnichenko T. ↓, Barkovskiy G. ↑,
75', Benvenuti G. ↓, Fabbri F. ↑,
78', Pasolini M. 🟨,
83', Capicchioni L. ↓, Meloni C. ↑,
85', Barkovskiy G. 🟨,
86', Kalinin V. 🟨,
88', 4 - 0, Kontsevoy A. ⚽, Shumansky A. (A),

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Illovszky Rudolf Stadion.

Belarus is ranked FIFA: 96., and San Marino is ranked FIFA: 211..

The betting markets point to Belarus as the clear and undisputed favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Belarus has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:0 (averaging 3.5:0 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Belarus
UEFA Nations League
29.09.26	Finland - Belarus	0:0 ✺
26.09.26	Albania - Belarus	2:0 ✺
Friendly
09.06.26	Belarus - Burkina Faso	2:2 ✺
05.06.26	Belarus - Syria	4:1 ✺
29.03.26	Armenia - Belarus	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 TLTWW
- San Marino
UEFA Nations League
29.09.26	San Marino - Albania	0:3 ✺
26.09.26	San Marino - Finland	0:7 ✺
Friendly
09.06.26	Azerbaijan - San Marino	2:1 ✺
05.06.26	San Marino - Bangladesh	1:2 ✺
31.03.26	San Marino - Andorra	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Nations League
18.11.18	San Marino - Belarus	0:2
08.09.18	Belarus - San Marino	5:0

Belarus - San Marino: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide