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Brazil - Japan: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • World Championship - Play Offs - 1/16-finals
  • Date: 29 June 2026, Monday
  • Location: NRG Stadium (Houston, TX)
  • Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Brazil Japan
    Brazil Japan
    1 X 2
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    (Initially)    		 1.77 ↓
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    (4.64)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

    • The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Brazil
    54.3%    		Draw
    26.8%    		Japan
    18.9%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    53.4% 26.1% 20.5%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Brazil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)
  • Japan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    74.6% 11.9% 13.4%

    Brazil - Japan Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 132 users predict this event. Brazil will win (votes: 100 - 75.8%). Japan will win (votes: 17 - 12.9%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 11.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Brazil: 68.5% – 83.1%. The data is statistically significant.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Brazil (votes: 11 - 64.7%). Tie (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 3.5 - over (3.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.75 - Japan (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (1.98) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
    • TQ, OT - Brazil (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Japan (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Brazil (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • 1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.12) (votes: 0 - 0%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Brazil (votes: 13 - 61.9%). Japan (votes: 2 - 9.5%). Tie (votes: 6 - 28.6%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. BrazilAlisson (G) Liverpool
    13. BrazilDanilo Flamengo RJ
      4. BrazilMarquinhos (C) PSG
      3. BrazilGabriel Arsenal
    16. BrazilDouglas Santos Zenit St Petersburg
      8. BrazilBruno Guimaraes Newcastle Utd
      5. BrazilCasemiro Manchester United
    20. BrazilLucas Paqueta Flamengo RJ
    26. BrazilRayan Bournemouth
      9. BrazilCunha M. Manchester United
      7. BrazilVinicius Junior Real Madrid
    		  1. JapanSuzuki Z. (G) Parma
    22. JapanTomiyasu T. Ajax
      3. JapanTaniguchi S. St. Truiden
    21. JapanIto H. Bayern Munich
    10. JapanDoan R. (C) Eintracht Frankfurt
    24. JapanSano K. Mainz
    15. JapanKamada D. Crystal Palace
    13. JapanNakamura K. Reims
    14. JapanIto J. Genk
    11. JapanMaeda D. Celtic
    18. JapanUeda A. Feyenoord
    Substitutes
      6. BrazilAlex Sandro Flamengo RJ
    14. BrazilBremer Juventus
    18. BrazilDanilo Santos Botafogo RJ
    23. BrazilEderson (G) Fenerbahce
      2. BrazilEderson Atalanta
    19. BrazilEndrick Lyon
    17. BrazilFabinho Al Ittihad
    24. BrazilIbanez Al Ahli SC
    15. BrazilLeo Pereira Flamengo RJ
    21. BrazilLuiz Henrique Zenit St Petersburg
    22. BrazilMartinelli G. Arsenal
    10. BrazilNeymar Santos
    25. BrazilThiago I. Brentford
    12. BrazilWeverton (G) Gremio
    		  9. JapanGoto K. St. Truiden
    23. JapanHayakawa T. (G) Kashima Antlers
      4. JapanItakura K. Ajax
      8. JapanKubo T. Real Sociedad
      6. JapanMachino S. B. Monchengladbach
      5. JapanNagatomo Y. FC Tokyo
    19. JapanOgawa K. Nijmegen
    12. JapanOsako K. (G) Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    20. JapanSeko A. Le Havre
    26. JapanShiogai K. Wolfsburg
      2. JapanSugawara Y. Werder Bremen
    25. JapanSuzuki J. FC Copenhagen
    17. JapanSuzuki Y. Freiburg
      7. JapanTanaka A. Leeds
    16. JapanWatanabe T. Feyenoord
    Coaches
         ItalyAncelotti C.
    		     JapanMoriyasu H.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 1)
    • 12', Sano K. 🟨,
    • 14', Casemiro 🟨,
    • 29', 0 - 1, Sano K. ⚽,
    • 45', Kamada D. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
    • 46', Lucas Paqueta ↓, Endrick ↑,
    • 48', Danilo 🟨,
    • 56', 1 - 1, Casemiro ⚽, Gabriel (A),
    • 66', Cunha M. ↓, Martinelli G. ↑,
    • 66', Doan R. ↓, Sugawara Y. ↑,
    • 66', Nakamura K. ↓, Suzuki J. ↑,
    • 78', Kamada D. ↓, Tanaka A. ↑,
    • 78', Ito J. ↓, Machino S. ↑,
    • 84', Suzuki J. 🟨,
    • 90+3', Casemiro ↓, Fabinho ↑,
    • 90+5', 2 - 1, Martinelli G. ⚽, Bruno Guimaraes (A),
    • 90+7', Maeda D. ↓, Ogawa K. ↑,
    • 90+8', Bruno Guimaraes ↓, Danilo Santos ↑,

    Preview

  • Brazil is ranked FIFA: 6. Japan is ranked FIFA: 18.
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brazil won 4.
  • Brazil has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
  • In this match, Brazil is the team to beat.
  • There will not play in Brazil: Raphinha (Thigh Injury) Wesley Franca (Muscle Injury)
  • There will not play in Japan: Endo W. (Foot Injury)
  • There are questionable in Japan: Itakura K. (Injury) Kubo T. (Knee Injury)
  • We predict that Brazil will win today's game, with odds of 1.71.
  • In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Brazil won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:4. (average 2.4:0.6).

    • Standings

    South America
    PlWDLDiffPts
    5Brazil1884624:17728

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Brazil
    FIFA World Cup
    24.06.26 Scotland - Brazil 0:3 ✺
    19.06.26 Brazil - Haiti 3:0 ✺
    13.06.26 Brazil - Morocco 1:1 ✺
    Friendly
    06.06.26 Brazil - Egypt 2:1 ✺
    31.05.26 Brazil - Panama 6:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1
    WWTWW
    - Japan
    FIFA World Cup
    25.06.26 Japan - Sweden 1:1 ✺
    21.06.26 Tunisia - Japan 0:4 ✺
    14.06.26 Netherlands - Japan 2:2 ✺
    Friendly
    31.05.26 Japan - Iceland 1:0 ✺
    31.03.26 England - Japan 0:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.9
    TWTWW
    Latest Head to Head
    Friendly
    14.10.25 Japan - Brazil 3:2
    06.06.22 Japan - Brazil 0:1
    10.11.17 Japan - Brazil 1:3
    14.10.14 Japan - Brazil 0:4
    FIFA Confederations Cup
    15.06.13 Brazil - Japan 3:0
    Friendly
    16.10.12 Japan - Brazil 0:4
    Olympic Games - Football Women
    03.08.12 Brazil - Japan N/A

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