Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 25

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday


	Broń Radom		Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.2	2.72
	2.26	3.21	2.8
	2.99	3.36	2.17	Watch
	2.3	3	2.7
	2.37	3.7	2.58	Watch
	2.12	3.52	2.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.12)	3.33 ↓ (3.52)	2.61 ↓ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Broń Radom
37.9%

Draw
27.3%

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
34.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

25.2%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

26.4%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Broń Radom has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Broń Radom than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Broń Radom, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Broń Radom - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
7', 0 - 1, Kolasa K. ⚽,
14', 0 - 2, Gebala P. ⚽,
23', 0 - 3, Kempski M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
67', 1 - 3, Szymanski M. ⚽,
90', 2 - 3, Bashlay D. ⚽,
90+8', Jakubczyk P. 🟥,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Broń Radom won 2.

Broń Radom has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Tomaszów Mazowiecki has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Broń Radom won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:24. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Broń Radom won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:10. (average 1.7:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	T. Mazowiecki	11	4	1	6	21:23	-2	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Broń Radom
Polish Division 3 - Group I
28.03.26	Wigry Suwałki - Broń Radom	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Broń Radom - ŁKS Łomża	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Widzew Łódź II - Broń Radom	6:0 ✺
06.03.26	Broń Radom - Wikielec	0:2 ✺
28.02.26	Wisła Płock II - Broń Radom	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LWLLT
- Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
29.03.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Wikielec	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	GKS Bełchatów - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Warta Sieradz	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Wasilków - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	3:3 ✺
28.02.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Znicz Biała Piska	7:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
12.09.25	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Broń Radom	1:2
10.05.25	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Broń Radom	2:2
11.10.24	Broń Radom - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	1:0
29.03.24	Broń Radom - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	2:2
01.09.23	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Broń Radom	4:0
17.06.23	Broń Radom - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	1:4
20.11.22	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Broń Radom	3:1

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