Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 29

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday


	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki		Wigry Suwałki

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.55	2.98
	2.06	3.69	2.96	Watch
	1.91	3.6	3.1
	2.05	3.58	2.99	Watch
	2.82	3.41	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.82)	3.57 ↑ (3.41)	2.82 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
42%

Draw
25.6%

Wigry Suwałki
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

25.9%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

25.4%

41.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki's performance.

Wigry Suwałki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Wigry Suwałki might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wigry Suwałki than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Wigry Suwałki could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Wigry Suwałki Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, Michalowski F. ⚽,
11', 0 - 2, Michalowski F. ⚽,
41', 1 - 2, Gebala P. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
82', 1 - 3, Modzelewski P. ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 7 and 5)

Tomaszów Mazowiecki has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Wigry is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tomaszów Mazowiecki won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.3:2).

Including home match between the teams, Tomaszów Mazowiecki won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Suwalki	12	7	4	1	22:11	11	25
12	T. Mazowiecki	11	4	1	6	21:23	-2	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
25.04.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Ząbkovia Ząbki	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	ŁKS Łomża - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Widzew Łódź II	3:1 ✺
04.04.26	Broń Radom - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	2:3 ✺
29.03.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Wikielec	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WTWWW
- Wigry Suwałki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
26.04.26	Wigry Suwałki - GKS Bełchatów	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Legia II - Wigry Suwałki	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Wigry Suwałki - ŁKS Łomża	1:0 ✺
03.04.26	Wikielec - Wigry Suwałki	1:2 ✺
28.03.26	Wigry Suwałki - Broń Radom	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
12.10.25	Wigry Suwałki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	3:0
25.05.25	Wigry Suwałki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	1:0
03.11.24	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Wigry Suwałki	1:2

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