Match Info

Division 3 - Group 1 - Round 17

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday


	Bærum		Junkeren

	1	X	2
	2.55	4	2.1
	2.12	3.95	2.62
	1.84	4.13	3.11
	2.12	3.81	2.88	Watch
	2.1	4.1	2.77
	2.6	4.05	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.65)	4.01 ↓ (4.1)	2.6 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bærum
41.5%

Draw
23%

Junkeren
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

22.1%

43.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

21.8%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bærum has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bærum's performance.

Junkeren has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Junkeren might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bærum than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bærum that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Junkeren than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Junkeren could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Bærum - Junkeren Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Unhjem I. (Pen),
35', 1 - 1, Bransdal L. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
49', 2 - 1, Moula J. ⚽,
65', 2 - 2, Hermansen A. ⚽,
67', 3 - 2, Moula J. ⚽,
86', Gohine J. 🟨,
90+1', 3 - 3, Arvesen A. S. (Own goal),

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Bærum is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Junkeren is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Junkeren may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Bærum won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:6. (average 2:3).

Including home match between the teams, Bærum won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bærum Sportsklubb
Norwegian NM Cup
13.08.25	Bærum - Stabæk	0:5 ✺
Norwegian Division 3 - Group 1
09.08.25	Bærum - Alta 2	3:0 ✺
12.07.25	Sortland - Bærum	0:4 ✺
06.07.25	Bærum - Harstad	3:1 ✺
28.06.25	Frigg Oslo - Bærum	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LWWWW
- IK Junkeren
Norwegian NM Cup
13.08.25	Junkeren - Rana	3:1 ET
Norwegian Division 3 - Group 1
10.08.25	Junkeren - Sortland	6:1 ✺
13.07.25	Gamle Oslo - Junkeren	1:2 ✺
06.07.25	Junkeren - Ulfstind	3:2 ✺
29.06.25	Tromsø 2 - Junkeren	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Division 2 - Group 2
01.10.23	Junkeren - Bærum	3:1
28.05.23	Bærum - Junkeren	3:3

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