Match Info

BRAZIL: PERNAMBUCANO - ROUND 6

Date: 31 January 2024, Wednesday


	CA Porto		Santa Cruz Recife

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.9	1.5
	5.5	4.2	1.52
	5.12	3.9	1.58
	5.8	4	1.44
	5.19	4	1.53
	5.4	4.2	1.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.38 ↑ (4.61)	4.03 ↑ (3.6)	1.51 ↓ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CA Porto
17%

Draw
22.6%

Santa Cruz Recife
60.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.6%

25.2%

55.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.1%

23.4%

51.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CA Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Santa Cruz Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Santa Cruz Recife's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CA Porto than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Santa Cruz Recife, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

CA Porto - Santa Cruz Recife Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ciriaco (G) 5. Adao 10. Bruninho (C) 11. Itallo Melo 9. Ivisson 7. Joao Fersura 2. Juninho 4. Kaio Henrique 6. Oziel 8. Robinho 3. Werison	1. William (G) 3. Freitas Barreto P. C. 7. Joao Diogo 6. Juan Tavares 8. Lucas Bessa 5. Lucas Siqueira 10. Matheus Melo 9. Pedro Bortoluzo 4. Rafael Pereira (C) 17. Thiaguinho 2. Toty
Substitutes
16. Antony Lucas 24. Arnaldo 13. Cristian 15. Fabiano L. 17. Fernando Willyam 23. Guilherme R. 19. Hudson Leal 18. Igor Ferreira 12. Luciano (G) 14. Luiz Felipe 21. Rene 20. Wilsinho	12. Andre Luiz (G) 15. Caio Mello 18. Carlos Henrique 22. Claudinei 11. Felipe Cardoso 19. Gabriel Cardoso 13. Italo Melo 20. Joao Pedro 16. Joao Victor 14. Luis Felipe 21. Wellisson Ferreira

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 9 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

CA Porto is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Santa Cruz is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

CA Porto could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Santa Cruz is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches CA Porto won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Including matches at home between the teams CA Porto won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Porto
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
28.01.24	Maguary - CA Porto	3:1 ✺
25.01.24	CA Porto - Flamengo Arcoverde	2:1 ✺
22.01.24	Afogados da Ingazeira - CA Porto	3:2 ✺
18.01.24	CA Porto - Central SC	2:3 ✺
10.01.24	Retrô Brasil - CA Porto	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LWLLL
- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
27.01.24	Santa Cruz Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	1:2 ✺
20.01.24	Sport Recife - Santa Cruz Recife	2:1 ✺
17.01.24	Santa Cruz Recife - Flamengo Arcoverde	1:0 ✺
11.01.24	Santa Cruz Recife - Maguary	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
07.01.24	Altos - Santa Cruz Recife	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
18.01.23	CA Porto - Santa Cruz Recife	0:0

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