Match Info

NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA: CONCACAF Nations League - League A - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 20 March 2025, Thursday

Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Sportklub 4
Canada	OneSoccer, RDS 2, RDS App, TLN, TSN 5, VIVA
Croatia	SportKlub 4
Denmark	Viaplay
Dominican-republic	CDN Deportes
El-salvador	Canal 4, TCS GO
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	L'Equipe Live Foot
Guatemala	Tigo Sports
Iceland	Viaplay
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola
Mexico	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Canal 5, TUDN
Montenegro	Sportklub 4
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2
Nicaragua	NicaSports
North-central-america	SportsMax App Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, Sportklub 4
Norway	Viaplay
Panama	Medcom GO, RPC
Portugal	Sport TV6
Serbia	SportKlub 4
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-america	ViX Latin America
Sweden	Viaplay
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport 2, S Sport+
Usa	CBS, Paramount+, TUDN, Univision
International	VIX App


	Canada		Mexico

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.25	2.25	Watch
	2.95	2.85	2.3
	3.1	3	2.4	Watch
	2.74	3.33	2.6
	3.28	3.09	2.29	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.5
	3.22	3.22	2.32	Watch
	3.1	3	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (2.43)	3.11 ↓ (3.23)	2.38 ↓ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

Watch this match and CONCACAF Nations League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: TUDN / Univision

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Current Win Probability

Canada
30.7%

Draw
30.1%

Mexico
39.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.6%

29%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Canada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Canada's form might have worsened.

Mexico has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mexico's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	15.4%	53.8%

Canada - Mexico Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Canada will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Mexico will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mexico: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. St.Clair D. (G) Minnesota United 2. Johnston A. Celtic 15. Bombito M. Nice 13. Cornelius D. Marseille 19. Davies A. (C) Bayern Munich 20. Ahmed A. Vancouver Whitecaps 7. Eustaquio S. FC Porto 8. Kone I. Rennes 21. Osorio J. Toronto FC 10. David J. Lille 9. Larin C. Mallorca	1. Malagon L. (G) Club America 2. Reyes I. Club America 6. Lira E. Cruz Azul 5. Vasquez J. Genoa 23. Gallardo J. Toluca 8. Rodriguez C. Cruz Azul 4. Alvarez E. (C) West Ham 11. Gimenez S. AC Milan 22. Alvarado R. Guadalajara Chivas 10. Vega A. Toluca 9. Jimenez R. Fulham
Substitutes
3. Bassong Z. Sporting Kansas City 17. Buchanan T. Villarreal 6. Choiniere M. Grasshoppers 16. Crepeau M. (G) Portland Timbers 22. David P. Royale Union SG 11. Jebbison D. Bournemouth 4. Knight-Lebel J. Crewe 18. McGill T. (G) Brighton 12. Oluwaseyi T. Minnesota United 14. Shaffelburg J. Nashville SC 23. Sigur N. Hajduk Split 5. Waterman J. CF Montreal	20. Alvarez E. Club Tijuana 14. Angulo J. Tigres UANL 18. Chavez L. Dynamo Moscow 21. Huerta Valera C. S. Anderlecht 19. Huescas R. FC Copenhagen 15. Juarez R. Club America 13. Moreno C. (G) Pachuca 17. Pineda O. AEK 16. Quinones J. Al Qadisiya 12. Rangel R. (G) Guadalajara Chivas 7. Romo L. Guadalajara Chivas
Coaches
Marsch J.	Aguirre J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Jimenez R. ⚽,
18', Bombito M. 🟨,
22', Davies A. 🟨,
27', Vega A. 🟨,
33', Johnston A. 🟨,
43', Vasquez J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', Vega A. ↓, Huerta Valera C. S. ↑,
54', Rodriguez C. ↓, Romo L. ↑,
60', Osorio J. ↓, Shaffelburg J. ↑,
67', Kone I. ↓, Choiniere M. ↑,
67', Ahmed A. ↓, Buchanan T. ↑,
71', Reyes I. 🟨,
75', 0 - 2, Jimenez R. ⚽,
80', Eustaquio S. ↓, Jebbison D. ↑,
80', Larin C. ↓, Oluwaseyi T. ↑,
81', Gimenez S. ↓, Quinones J. ↑,
89', Lira E. ↓, Chavez L. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Canada won 1.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Canada won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 5:14 (average 0.6:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Canada
CONCACAF Nations League
19.11.24	Canada - Suriname	3:0 ✺
15.11.24	Suriname - Canada	0:1 ✺
Friendly
15.10.24	Canada - Panama	2:1 ✺
10.09.24	Canada - Mexico	0:0 ✺
07.09.24	USA - Canada	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWWTW
- Mexico
Friendly
21.01.25	River Plate Montevideo - Mexico	2:0 ✺
16.01.25	Internacional RS - Mexico	0:2 ✺
CONCACAF Nations League
19.11.24	Mexico - Honduras	4:0 ✺
15.11.24	Honduras - Mexico	2:0 ✺
Friendly
15.10.24	Mexico - USA	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly
10.09.24	Canada - Mexico	0:0
FIFA World Cup
16.11.21	Canada - Mexico	2:1
07.10.21	Mexico - Canada	1:1
Gold Cup
29.07.21	Mexico - Canada	2:1
19.06.19	Mexico - Canada	3:1
FIFA World Cup
29.03.16	Mexico - Canada	2:0
25.03.16	Canada - Mexico	0:3

Canada - Mexico: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide