Match Info

WORLD: Olympic Games Women - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Alves Batista E. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Discovery+, Eurosport 2
Finland	Discovery+, Eurosport 2
Germany	Eurosport 2
Poland	Eurosport 2
Portugal	Eurosport 2
Spain	Eurosport 1
Sweden	Eurosport 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, Eurosport 1, Eurosport 5
Usa	NBC Universo, UNIVERSO NOW
World	Eurosport 5, Max


	Canada W		Germany W

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.5	2.15
	3.4	3.5	2
	3.3	3.6	2.05
	3.58	3.66	2.12
	3.51	3.72	2.01	Watch
	3.57	3.74	2	Watch
	3.3	3.6	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (2.71)	3.62 ↑ (3.54)	2.05 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

Watch this match and Olympic Games - Football Women with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: NBCU Paris Olympics Extra 2

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Current Win Probability

Canada W
27.7%

Draw
26.2%

Germany W
46.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

26.2%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

26.9%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Canada W has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Canada W's form might have worsened.

Germany W has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Germany W's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Canada W than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Canada W, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Germany W than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Germany W, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	20%	50%

Canada W - Germany W Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Canada will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Germany will win (votes: 5 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Germany: 19% – 81%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sheridan K. (G) San Diego Wave 12. Rose J. 14. Gilles V. Lyon 3. Buchanan K. Chelsea 2. Carle G. Washington Spirit 13. Awujo S. 5. Quinn Seattle Reign 10. Lawrence A. Chelsea 17. Fleming J. (C) Portland Thorns FC 9. Huitema J. Seattle Reign 15. Prince N. Kansas City Current	12. Berger A. (G) Gotham FC 15. Gwinn G. Bayern Munich 3. Hendrich K. Wolfsburg 5. Hegering M. Wolfsburg 19. Rauch F. North Carolina Courage 16. Brand J. Wolfsburg 6. Minge J. Freiburg 9. Nusken S. Chelsea 17. Buhl K. Bayern Munich 11. Popp A. (C) Wolfsburg 7. Schuller L. Bayern Munich
Substitutes
16. Beckie J. Portland Thorns FC 18. D'Angelo S. (G) 7. Grosso J. Juventus 6. Lacasse C. Arsenal 11. Leon A. Aston Villa 4. Viens E. AS Roma 20. Zadorsky S. West Ham	4. Bibi Athletic Bilbao 13. Doorsoun-Khajeh S. Eintracht Frankfurt 18. Endemann V. Wolfsburg 10. Freigang L. Eintracht Frankfurt 1. Frohms M. (G) Wolfsburg 8. Lohmann S. Bayern Munich 14. Senss E. Bayer Leverkusen
Coaches
Spence A.	Hrubesch H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Fleming J. ↓, Beckie J. ↑,
57', Huitema J. ↓, Viens E. ↑,
57', Carle G. ↓, Lacasse C. ↑,
57', Prince N. ↓, Leon A. ↑,
65', Nusken S. ↓, Lohmann S. ↑,
65', Buhl K. ↓, Endemann V. ↑,
79', Brand J. 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
102', Rauch F. 🟨,
102', Endemann V. ↓, Senss E. ↑,
107', Gwinn G. 🟨,
108', Awujo S. ↓, Grosso J. ↑,
114', Schuller L. ↓, Freigang L. ↑,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, Gwinn G. (Pen),
1, Quinn (Pen),
2, Minge J. (Pen),
2, Lawrence A. (Pen),
3, Lohmann S. (Pen),
3, Leon A. (Pen),
4, Rauch F. (Pen),
4, Beckie J. (Pen),
5, Berger A. (Pen),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Canada won 2.

Canada in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Germany is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Germany will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Canada won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 7-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Canada W
Olympic Games - Football Women
31.07.24	Colombia W - Canada W	0:1 ✺
28.07.24	France W - Canada W	1:2 ✺
25.07.24	Canada W - New Zealand W	2:1 ✺
Friendly International Women
13.07.24	Australia W - Canada W	1:2 ✺
04.06.24	Canada W - Mexico W	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WWWWT
- Germany W
Olympic Games - Football Women
31.07.24	Zambia W - Germany W	1:4 ✺
28.07.24	USA W - Germany W	4:1 ✺
25.07.24	Germany W - Australia W	3:0 ✺
UEFA Euro Women
16.07.24	Germany W - Austria W	4:0 ✺
12.07.24	Iceland W - Germany W	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Arnold Clark Cup Women
20.02.22	Canada W - Germany W	1:0
Friendly International Women
10.06.18	Canada W - Germany W	2:3
09.04.17	Germany W - Canada W	2:1
Olympic Games - Football Women
16.08.16	Germany W - Canada W	2:0
09.08.16	Germany W - Canada W	1:2
Friendly International Women
18.06.14	Canada W - Germany W	1:2
19.06.13	Germany W - Canada W	1:0

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