Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Celorico De Basto (Celorico de Basto)


	Celoricense		Desportivo Monção

	1	X	2
	1.00	11.46	15.00	Watch
	1.35	4.45	7.48
	1.36	4.25	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.64)	6.72 ↑ (3.4)	9.83 ↑ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celoricense
76.3%

Draw
14%

Desportivo Monção
9.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.7%

26.4%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57%

25.3%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celoricense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Celoricense's performance.

Desportivo Monção has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Desportivo Monção might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celoricense than the current prediction. (-19.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Celoricense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Desportivo Monção than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Desportivo Monção could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Celoricense - Desportivo Monção Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Celoricense (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Celoricense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (4 - 2)
50', 2 - 0, ⚽,
59', 3 - 0, ⚽,
68', 3 - 1, Tigas ⚽,
75', 4 - 1, ⚽,
87', 5 - 1, ⚽,
90', 5 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Celoricense is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Desportivo Monção is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Celoricense has had a series of home games.

In this match, Celoricense is the team to beat.

We predict that Celoricense will win today's game, with odds of 1.64.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Celoricense
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Celoricense - Mafra	1:0 ET ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
14.09.25	Mirandela - Celoricense	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
31.08.25	Celoricense - Celeirós	1:0 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
24.08.25	Celoricense - Ribeira Brava	5:1 ✺
17.08.25	Celoricense - Bragança	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WWWWL
- Desportivo Monção
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Desportivo Monção - Oliveirense	1:3 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
14.09.25	Desportivo Monção - Vilaverdense	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
31.08.25	Vilaverdense - Desportivo Monção	0:1 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
24.08.25	Camacha - Desportivo Monção	4:0 ✺
10.08.25	Brito - Desportivo Monção	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LTWLL

Celoricense - Desportivo Monção: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide