Match Info

III Liga - Group IV - Round 10

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday


	Chełmianka Chełm		Podlasie Biała Podlaska

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.20	7.25
	1.35	4.3	6.6
	1.34	4.5	6.24
	1.38	4.62	6.6	Watch
	1.31	4.4	6.1
	1.32	4.55	7.6	Watch
	1.37	4.5	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.37)	4.44 ↓ (4.5)	6.57 ↑ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chełmianka Chełm
66.3%

Draw
20.1%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.6%

19.7%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.6%

18.3%

14.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chełmianka Chełm has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Podlasie Biała Podlaska has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chełmianka Chełm than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Podlasie Biała Podlaska than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Chełmianka Chełm - Podlasie Biała Podlaska Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1st in the Promotion ~ Division 2 and 10th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chełmianka won 2.

Chełmianka has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Biała Podlaska has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Biała Podlaska could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The betting markets point to Chełmianka as the clear and undisputed favorite.

Our forecast points to a victory for Chełmianka in today's match, at odds of 1.37.

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Chełmianka has recorded 6 wins, 8 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 30:22 (averaging 1.8:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Chełmianka against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with 16:14 goals (averaging 1.8:1.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	11	8	3	0	18:5	13	27
13	Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10:13	-3	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chełmianka Chełm
Polish Division 3 - Group IV
19.09.26	KSZO Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski - Chełmianka Chełm	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Chełmianka Chełm - Siarka Tarnobrzeg	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Wisła II Kraków - Chełmianka Chełm	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Chełmianka Chełm - Wieczysta II	1:0 ✺
23.08.26	Naprzód Jędrzejów - Chełmianka Chełm	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TTWWW
- Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Polish Division 3 - Group IV
19.09.26	Siarka Tarnobrzeg - Podlasie Biała Podlaska	2:0 ✺
11.09.26	Podlasie Biała Podlaska - Wieczysta II	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Wisłoka Dębica - Podlasie Biała Podlaska	1:0 ✺
28.08.26	Podlasie Biała Podlaska - Sokół Kolbuszowa Dolna	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	JKS Jarosław - Podlasie Biała Podlaska	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group IV
23.11.25	Chełmianka Chełm - Podlasie Biała Podlaska	1:0
02.08.25	Podlasie Biała Podlaska - Chełmianka Chełm	0:3
14.03.25	Podlasie Biała Podlaska - Chełmianka Chełm	1:1
21.08.24	Chełmianka Chełm - Podlasie Biała Podlaska	0:1
01.06.24	Podlasie Biała Podlaska - Chełmianka Chełm	3:1
12.11.23	Chełmianka Chełm - Podlasie Biała Podlaska	1:3
04.03.23	Podlasie Biała Podlaska - Chełmianka Chełm	2:2

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