Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 9 - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday


	Churriana de la Vega		Motril

	1	X	2
	4.2	2.85	1.88
	3.25	2.72	2.28
	3.66	2.51	2.38
	3.64	2.53	2.4	Watch
	3	2.88	2.3
	3.55	2.64	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.55 ↓ (3.7)	2.69 ↓ (3.2)	2.25 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Churriana de la Vega
25.7%

Draw
33.9%

Motril
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.2%

28%

47.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.7%

26.4%

44.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Churriana de la Vega has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Motril has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Motril might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

The ML Model estimate for Churriana de la Vega aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motril than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Churriana de la Vega - Motril Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Diaz A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
69', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Motril could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Churriana de la Vega won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:4.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Motril	5	3	2	0	8:4	4	11
9	Churriana de la Vega	5	2	0	3	9:9	0	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Churriana de la Vega CF
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 9
10.05.26	El Palo - Churriana de la Vega	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Churriana de la Vega - Torredonjimeno	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Granada B - Churriana de la Vega	2:2 ✺
05.04.26	Churriana de la Vega - Huétor Vega	1:4 ✺
28.03.26	Huétor Tájar - Churriana de la Vega	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWTLT
- CF Motril
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 9
10.05.26	Motril - Atlético Porcuna	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Torre Del Mar - Motril	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Motril - Martos	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	El Palo - Motril	5:0 ✺
05.04.26	Motril - Mijas-Las Lagunas	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 9
11.02.26	Motril - Churriana de la Vega	4:0

Churriana de la Vega - Motril: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide