Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 6

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Ciudad de Lucena		Don Benito

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.90	3.40
	2.02	2.92	3.45
	2.16	2.93	3.65
	2.11	3.01	3.56	Watch
	2.13	2.9	3.6
	2.09	3.24	3.55
	2.07	3	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.53)	2.99 ↓ (3.13)	3.53 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ciudad de Lucena
43.6%

Draw
30.5%

Don Benito
25.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.4%

28.6%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

29.8%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ciudad de Lucena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ciudad de Lucena's performance.

Don Benito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Don Benito might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ciudad de Lucena than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ciudad de Lucena that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Don Benito than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Don Benito could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ciudad de Lucena - Don Benito Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 2)
14', 0 - 1, Goma N. ⚽,
22', 0 - 2, Pavon L. ⚽,
29', 1 - 2, Alberto Garcia ⚽,
32', 2 - 2, Molina M. ⚽,
41', 3 - 2, Alberto Garcia ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', 4 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 5th in the Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Promotion Play Offs and 3rd in the Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Promotion Play Offs).

Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

Ciudad de Lucena may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Ciudad de Lucena holding a narrow advantage.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Ciudad de Lucena	8	4	3	1	14:8	6	15
5	Don Benito	8	4	2	2	14:11	3	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Ciudad de Lucena
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
04.10.26	Ciudad de Lucena - Puente Genil	1:0 ✺
27.09.26	Antoniano - Ciudad de Lucena	0:3 ✺
20.09.26	Ciudad de Lucena - Tenerife B	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Mijas-Las Lagunas - Ciudad de Lucena	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
30.08.26	Ciudad de Lucena - Mancha Real	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWLTW
- CD Don Benito
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
03.10.26	Estepona - Don Benito	3:1 ✺
26.09.26	Don Benito - Atlético Sanluqueño	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Xerez CD - Don Benito	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Don Benito - Las Palmas B	3:0 ✺
06.09.26	Antoniano - Don Benito	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 LWTWW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Ciudad de Lucena
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
01.11.26	Ciudad de Lucena - Atlético Sanluqueño	✺
- CD Don Benito
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
01.11.26	Tenerife B - Don Benito	✺

Ciudad de Lucena - Don Benito