Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Final

Date: 19 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stadion Rajko Mitić (Belgrade)

Referee: Hernandez A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade		Paphos

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.5	6
	1.6	4	5.25
	1.55	4.5	6
	1.5	4.65	6.4
	2.11	3.87	3.02	Watch
	1.62	3.8	4.8
	1.57	4.39	5.66
	1.6	3.9	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.5)	4.2 ↑ (3.9)	5.25 ↓ (6.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
58.9%

Draw
22.8%

Paphos
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.6%

23.7%

14.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.1%

22.4%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Paphos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crvena Zvezda Belgrade than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Crvena Zvezda Belgrade, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.6%	5.1%	6.3%

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Paphos Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Crvena Zvezda (2.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Crvena Zvezda Belgrade will win (69 of 77 users predict this - 89.61%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.79% – 96.43%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Crvena Zvezda Belgrade will win (49 of 53 users predict this - 92.45%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 54 Selected Experts predict this event. Crvena Zvezda (votes: 50 - 92.6%). Paphos (votes: 1 - 1.9%). Tie (votes: 3 - 5.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus (G) 66. Seol Young-Woo 44. Milosavljevic V. 13. Veljkovic M. 23. Tiknizyan N. 6. Bajo M. 21. Elsnik T. 80. Babicka S. 4. Ivanic M. (C) 14. Olayinka P. 9. Ndiaye C.	93. Michail N. (G) 77. Correia J. 5. Goldar D. 23. Luckassen D. 2. Pileas K. 88. Pepe 26. Sunjic I. 30. Dragomir V. 22. Tankovic M. (C) 7. Bruno 33. Anderson Silva
Substitutes
71. Avdic A. 17. Bruno Duarte 18. Glazer O. (G) 77. Gutesa I. (G) 10. Katai A. 22. Kostov V. 25. Lekovic S. 37. Lucic V. 7. Milson 8. Sljivic J. 24. Stankovic N. 30. Tebo Uchenna F.	9. Bassouamina M. 70. Ilia M. 11. Jaja 25. Langa B. 17. Orsic M. 99. Papadoudis A. (G) 35. Pedrao 82. Petrou P. (G) 12. Sema K.
Coaches
Milojevic V.	Carcedo J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Correia J. ⚽, Tankovic M. (A),
17', Tankovic M. ↓, Sema K. ↑,
32', Olayinka P. ↓, Bruno Duarte ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 0 - 2, Pepe (Pen),
58', Bruno Duarte (Pen),
58', 1 - 2, Bruno Duarte ⚽,
69', Bajo M. ↓, Katai A. ↑,
73', Anderson Silva ↓, Ilia M. ↑,
73', Pileas K. ↓, Langa B. ↑,
73', Correia J. ↓, Jaja ↑,
77', Ivanic M. 🟨,
84', Sema K. ↓, Orsic M. ↑,
87', Babicka S. ↓, Milson ↑,
87', Langa B. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Crvena Zvezda has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Paphos is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Crvena Zvezda may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Crvena Zvezda is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Crvena Zvezda: Rodrigo (Red Card)

There will not play in Paphos: David Luiz (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Crvena Zvezda: Avdic A. (Injury)

We predict that Crvena Zvezda will win today's game, with odds of 1.59.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
Serbian Superliga
15.08.25	Mladost Lučani - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.08.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Lech Poznań	1:1 ✺
Serbian Superliga
09.08.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Bačka Topola	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
06.08.25	Lech Poznań - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:3 ✺
29.07.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Lincoln Red Imps	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WTWWW
- Paphos FC
UEFA Champions League
12.08.25	Paphos - Dynamo Kyiv	2:0 ✺
05.08.25	Dynamo Kyiv - Paphos	0:1 ✺
30.07.25	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Paphos	0:1 ✺
22.07.25	Paphos - Maccabi Tel Aviv	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
13.07.25	Orlando Pirates - Paphos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.2 WWWTT

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