Match Info

IRAN: Azadegan League - Round 16

Date: 28 December 2024, Saturday


	Damash Gilan		Fajr Sepasi

	1	X	2
	6.5	3.1	1.55
	5.2	2.94	1.7
	8.37	3.36	1.49	Watch
	8	3.3	1.5
	7.95	3.42	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.2 ↑ (3.35)	3.22 ↑ (2.95)	1.54 ↓ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Damash Gilan
12.6%

Draw
28.3%

Fajr Sepasi
59.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.8%

30.4%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

30.4%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Damash Gilan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Damash Gilan's form might have worsened.

Fajr Sepasi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fajr Sepasi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Damash Gilan than the current prediction. (+14.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Damash Gilan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fajr Sepasi than the current prediction. (-16.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fajr Sepasi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Damash Gilan - Fajr Sepasi Predictions

Users Predictions: Fajr Sepasi will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+6', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Persian Gulf Pro League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Damash Gilan won 1.

Damash Gilan is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Fajr Sepasi is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Fajr Sepasi could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Fajr Sepasi will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Damash Gilan won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11:16 (average 1.1:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Damash Gilan won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:5 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Damash Gilan
Iran Division 1
22.12.24	Mes Sungun - Damash Gilan	4:0 ✺
16.12.24	Damash Gilan - Mes Kerman	0:0 ✺
07.12.24	Palayesh Naft - Damash Gilan	0:0 ✺
30.11.24	Damash Gilan - Paykan	1:4 ✺
10.11.24	Damash Gilan - SaiPa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LTTLT
- Fajr Sepasi
Iran Division 1
20.12.24	Fajr Sepasi - Naft Masjed Soleyman	2:0 ✺
07.12.24	Fajr Sepasi - Shahrdari Noshahr	4:1 ✺
30.11.24	Niroye Zamini - Fajr Sepasi	2:3 ✺
10.11.24	Fajr Sepasi - Shahrdari Astara	3:0 ✺
29.10.24	Mes Sungun - Fajr Sepasi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Iran Division 1
14.02.24	Damash Gilan - Fajr Sepasi	1:1
10.09.23	Fajr Sepasi - Damash Gilan	2:0
13.07.20	Damash Gilan - Fajr Sepasi	1:1
10.11.19	Fajr Sepasi - Damash Gilan	1:1
Iran Hazfi Cup
04.10.18	Fajr Sepasi - Damash Gilan	0:2
Iran Division 1
08.02.16	Damash Gilan - Fajr Sepasi	1:0
Iran Pro League
16.01.14	Damash Gilan - Fajr Sepasi	1:3

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