Match Info

PORTUGAL: CAMPEONATO DE PORTUGAL - GROUP D - ROUND 11

Date: 3 December 2023, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Elvas		Fabril do Barreiro

	1	X	2
	1.88	3	3.8
	1.95	3.1	3.75
	1.9	3.12	4.38
	1.91	3.12	4.38
	1.78	3.22	4.35
	1.9	3.05	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.63)	3.1 ↑ (2.95)	4.13 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elvas
48.4%

Draw
29.4%

Fabril do Barreiro
22.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35%

31.2%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

30.9%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elvas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Elvas's performance.

Fabril do Barreiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fabril do Barreiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elvas than the current prediction. (-13.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Elvas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fabril do Barreiro than the current prediction. (+11.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fabril do Barreiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation and 8).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Fabril do Barreiro could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Elvas will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- O Elvas CAD
Taça de Portugal
26.11.23	Elvas - Santa Clara	1:2 penalties ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
12.11.23	Imortal - Elvas	2:2 ✺
05.11.23	Elvas - Oriental	1:1 ✺
01.11.23	Serpa - Elvas	0:1 ✺
28.10.23	Elvas - Juventude de Évora	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LTTWT
- Fabril do Barreiro
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
19.11.23	Barreirense - Fabril do Barreiro	1:0 ✺
12.11.23	Oriental - Fabril do Barreiro	1:0 ✺
05.11.23	Fabril do Barreiro - Juventude de Évora	2:1 ✺
28.10.23	Fabril do Barreiro - Sintrense	2:1 ✺
08.10.23	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira - Fabril do Barreiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LLWWT

Elvas - Fabril do Barreiro

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Preview

Form

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