Match Info

3. Lig Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Location: RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu (Kayseri)


	Erciyes 38		Malatya Yeşilyurt

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.2	2.68
	2.45	3	2.71
	2.49	3.12	2.74
	2.4	3	2.63
	2.48	3.3	2.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.36)	3.12 ↑ (3)	2.69 ↓ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erciyes 38
37.1%

Draw
29.1%

Malatya Yeşilyurt
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

30.7%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

30.3%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erciyes 38 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Malatya Yeşilyurt has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erciyes 38 than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Malatya Yeşilyurt than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Erciyes 38 - Malatya Yeşilyurt Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
10', 0 - 1, Kanarya T. (Penalty Awarded),
14', 0 - 2, Uzun O. ⚽, Kanarya T. (A),
18', 0 - 3, Kanarya T. ⚽, Tutcuoglu G. (A),
26', 1 - 3, Balci E. ⚽, Tosun M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', 2 - 3, Kunduzcu U. B. ⚽, Gokcen U. (A),
65', 3 - 3, Yigit S. ⚽, Gencel G. (A),
Extra Time (0 - 1)
93', 3 - 4, Gunes M. ⚽, Yildiz Y. (A),

Preview

First leg result: 0-0.

Erciyes has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Malatya Yeşilyurt is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Malatya Yeşilyurt may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Erciyes won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Erciyes won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erciyes 38 FSK
Turkish 3 Lig Group 1
04.05.26	Malatya Yeşilyurt - Erciyes 38	0:0 ✺
27.04.26	Erciyes 38 - Mazıdağı Fosfat Spor	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Mazıdağı Fosfat Spor - Erciyes 38	1:1 ✺
Turkish 3 Lig Group 2
12.04.26	Kahramanmaraşspor - Erciyes 38	1:4 ✺
05.04.26	Erciyes 38 - Yeni Diyarbakırspor	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TWTWL
- Malatya Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
Turkish 3 Lig Group 1
04.05.26	Malatya Yeşilyurt - Erciyes 38	0:0 ✺
Turkish 3 Lig Group 2
12.04.26	Agrispor - Malatya Yeşilyurt	0:1 ✺
05.04.26	Malatya Yeşilyurt - Karaköprü	6:2 ✺
28.03.26	Silifke - Malatya Yeşilyurt	3:2 ✺
24.03.26	Malatya Yeşilyurt - Osmaniyespor	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish 3 Lig Group 1
04.05.26	Malatya Yeşilyurt - Erciyes 38	0:0
Turkish 3 Lig Group 2
15.02.26	Erciyes 38 - Malatya Yeşilyurt	1:4

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