Match Info

TURKEY: 1. LIG - ROUND 18

Date: 18 December 2022, Sunday

Location: Kâzım Karabekir Stadyumu (Erzurum)

Referee: Erdogan M. (Tur)


	Erzurumspor		Altınordu

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.8	4.75
	1.65	3.6	4.75
	1.73	3.5	4.1
	1.65	3.65	4.4
	1.65	3.83	5.44
	1.63	3.5	4.75
	1.62	3.74	4.85
	1.66	3.65	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.85)	3.66 ↑ (3.45)	4.68 ↑ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzurumspor
55.5%

Draw
25%

Altınordu
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

26.1%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

20.9%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzurumspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Erzurumspor's performance.

Altınordu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Altınordu might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzurumspor than the current prediction. (-16.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Erzurumspor that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Altınordu than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Altınordu could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.2%	18.2%	13.6%

Erzurumspor - Altınordu Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Erzurumspor will win (votes: 15 - 68.2%). Altınordu will win (votes: 3 - 13.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Erzurumspor: 48.7% – 87.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 14 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Erzurumspor won 2.

Recent matches Erzurumspor is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Altınordu has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Erzurumspor is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Erzurumspor won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Erzurumspor won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzurumspor
Turkish First League
11.12.22	Gençlerbirliği - Erzurumspor	1:2 ✺
03.12.22	Sakaryaspor - Erzurumspor	2:0 ✺
27.11.22	Erzurumspor - Bandırmaspor	1:2 ✺
19.11.22	Manisa FK - Erzurumspor	0:0 ✺
12.11.22	Erzurumspor - Adanaspor	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLLTW
- Altınordu
Turkish First League
11.12.22	Altınordu - Bodrumspor	0:2 ✺
03.12.22	Bandırmaspor - Altınordu	1:0 ✺
28.11.22	Altınordu - Manisa FK	1:3 ✺
19.11.22	Adanaspor - Altınordu	2:1 ✺
13.11.22	Altınordu - Altay	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
05.03.22	Altınordu - Erzurumspor	1:0
17.10.21	Erzurumspor - Altınordu	6:2
26.02.20	Altınordu - Erzurumspor	2:1
06.10.19	Erzurumspor - Altınordu	1:0
05.05.18	Altınordu - Erzurumspor	1:1
24.12.17	Erzurumspor - Altınordu	2:1

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