Match Info

Persian Gulf Pro League - Round 11

Date: 28 November 2025, Friday

Location: Ghadir Stadium (Ahvaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Iran	IRIB Varzesh


	Esteghlal Khuzestan		Gol Gohar Sirjan

	1	X	2
	4.55	2.72	2
	4.59	2.71	1.95
	2.57	2.91	2.91	Watch
	4.62	2.69	1.96	Watch
	4.75	2.71	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.22 ↑ (2.57)	2.75 ↓ (2.91)	2.14 ↓ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Esteghlal Khuzestan
22.2%

Draw
34.1%

Gol Gohar Sirjan
43.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

31.6%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Esteghlal Khuzestan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Esteghlal Khuzestan's form might have worsened.

Gol Gohar Sirjan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gol Gohar Sirjan's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Esteghlal Khuzestan than the current prediction. (+13.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Esteghlal Khuzestan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gol Gohar Sirjan than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gol Gohar Sirjan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Esteghlal Khuzestan - Gol Gohar Sirjan Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kia M. (G) 11. Koohi A. 60. Baghaki S. D. 4. Abbasi A. 77. Ahmadi M. M. 41. Mirdoraghi F. 8. Bouhamdan H. 16. Jalalivand A. 29. Latifi G. 10. Sadeghi A. 70. Ahmadi H.	1. Garousian F. (G) 3. Jafari A. 5. Yazdani S. 14. Akvan A. 4. Alizadeh A. 33. Asadi R. 8. Ashouri A. 20. Majid E. 10. Tikdari M. 90. Bocoum E. 11. Jafari R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Akvan A. ⚽, Ashouri A. (A),
40', Ashouri A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jafari A. ↓, Tomasevic N. ↑,
52', Tikdari M. 🟨,
57', Ashouri A. ↓, Latififar P. ↑,
67', Koohi A. ↓, Rostami A. ↑,
74', Asadi R. ↓, Sheikholeslami A. ↑,
76', Jalalivand A. ↓, Zavari M. ↑,
84', Bouhamdan H. ↓, Pourshijani A. ↑,
84', Ahmadi M. M. ↓, Farhadi A. ↑,
86', Jafari A. ↓, Pourali P. ↑,
90+4', Latifi G. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 8).

Esteghlal Khuzestan has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Gol Gohar Sirjan has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Gol Gohar Sirjan has had a series of home games.

Gol Gohar Sirjan might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Esteghlal Khuzestan won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:6. (average 1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Esteghlal Khuzestan won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Gol Gohar Sirjan - the odds 2.91 are the expected chance of winning is 31.93%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Esteghlal Khuzestan
Iran Hazfi Cup
22.11.25	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Foolad Khuzestan	0:3 ✺
Iran Pro League
07.11.25	Persepolis - Esteghlal Khuzestan	3:0 ✺
31.10.25	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Foolad Khuzestan	1:1 ✺
24.10.25	Malavan - Esteghlal Khuzestan	2:0 ✺
17.10.25	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Sepahan	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL
- Gol Gohar Sirjan
Iran Hazfi Cup
22.11.25	Gol Gohar Sirjan - Shenavarsazi Qeshm	1:0 ✺
Iran Pro League
06.11.25	Gol Gohar Sirjan - Zob Ahan	1:2 ✺
31.10.25	Kheybar Khorramabad - Gol Gohar Sirjan	0:0 ✺
25.10.25	Gol Gohar Sirjan - Tractor Sazi	0:5 ✺
17.10.25	Gol Gohar Sirjan - Chadormalou Ardakan	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Iran Pro League
25.01.25	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Gol Gohar Sirjan	1:1
22.08.24	Gol Gohar Sirjan - Esteghlal Khuzestan	2:0
18.04.24	Gol Gohar Sirjan - Esteghlal Khuzestan	2:2
03.11.23	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Gol Gohar Sirjan	1:1

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