Match Info

Turkish Cup - Round 3

Date: 4 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Atatürk Olimpiyat (Istanbul)

Referee: Altay C. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	A Spor
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Turkey	A Spor


	Fatih Karagümrükspor		İstanbul Başakşehir

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.6	1.73
	4.67	3.54	1.73
	4.38	3.58	1.79
	11.91	6.58	1.20	Watch
	4.2	3.3	1.75
	4.48	3.62	1.75	Watch
	4.25	3.5	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.43 ↑ (4.52)	3.96 ↑ (3.67)	1.68 ↓ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fatih Karagümrükspor
17.9%

Draw
24.5%

İstanbul Başakşehir
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.4%

25.2%

54.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20%

24.7%

55.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fatih Karagümrükspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

İstanbul Başakşehir has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fatih Karagümrükspor than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for İstanbul Başakşehir than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Fatih Karagümrükspor - İstanbul Başakşehir Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Karagümrük will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Başakşehir will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Başakşehir (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Karagümrük (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): İstanbul Başakşehir will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Karagümrük (votes: 1 - 20%). Başakşehir (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
96. Yandal K. (G) 32. Kadioglu M. 24. Ersoy B. 94. Cinar A. 33. Kurukalip C. 6. Elmaz B. 5. Kranevitter M. (C) 20. Kalpakli T. 70. Serginho 80. Babicka S. 15. Kone	80. Alemdar D. (G) 6. Bulut O. 5. Duarte L. (C) 27. Ba O. 21. Operi C. 2. Ozdemir B. 20. Gunes U. 11. Fayzullaev A. 14. Shomurodov E. 77. Brnic I. 91. Yildirim B.
Substitutes
88. Ahmed T. 50. Akdag O. 99. Beklevic F. (G) 4. Biraschi D. 47. Esgaio R. 72. Kalayci B. 23. Larsson S. 8. Ozcan B. 17. Sivri A.	1. Babacan V. (G) 13. Crespo M. 36. Ebosele F. 15. Gureler H. 25. Harit A. 18. Kaluzinski J. 8. Kemen O. 3. Opoku J. 7. Sari Y. 9. Selke D.
Coaches
Stanojevic A.	Sahin N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, Fayzullaev A. ⚽, Brnic I. (A),
22', 0 - 2, Shomurodov E. ⚽,
26', Shomurodov E. ↓, Crespo M. ↑,
45', Kadioglu M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Duarte L. ↓, Gureler H. ↑,
46', Serginho ↓, Ozcan B. ↑,
46', Kranevitter M. ↓, Larsson S. ↑,
46', Babicka S. ↓, Kalayci B. ↑,
46', Kurukalip C. ↓, Esgaio R. ↑,
50', 0 - 3, Crespo M. ⚽,
58', Operi C. ↓, Ebosele F. ↑,
58', Fayzullaev A. ↓, Sari Y. ↑,
65', 0 - 4, Brnic I. ⚽, Yildirim B. (A),
66', Gunes U. ↓, Kaluzinski J. ↑,
71', Kalpakli T. ↓, Biraschi D. ↑,
78', Ebosele F. 🟨,
79', 1 - 4, Kone ⚽, Kalayci B. (A),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 5 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Karagümrük won 1.

Karagümrük is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Başakşehir is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Başakşehir has had a series of home games.

In this match, Başakşehir is considered a favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Karagümrük won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Karagümrük won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.7:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fatih Karagümrükspor
Turkish Super League
31.01.26	Göztepe - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Galatasaray	1:3 ✺
17.01.26	İstanbul Başakşehir - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
13.01.26	Alanyaspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
09.01.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Petrolul Ploieşti	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLLTL
- İstanbul Başakşehir
Turkish Super League
31.01.26	İstanbul Başakşehir - Çaykur Rizespor	2:2 ✺
24.01.26	Kayserispor - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:3 ✺
17.01.26	İstanbul Başakşehir - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
13.01.26	İstanbul Başakşehir - Boluspor	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.01.26	İstanbul Başakşehir - Osijek	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
17.01.26	İstanbul Başakşehir - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:1
17.09.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:2
20.01.24	Fatih Karagümrükspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:1
20.08.23	İstanbul Başakşehir - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:2
19.03.23	Fatih Karagümrükspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	2:2
Turkish Cup
18.01.23	Fatih Karagümrükspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	2:3 penalties
Turkish Super League
18.09.22	İstanbul Başakşehir - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:0

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