Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 - Round 21

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday


	Felanitx		Peña Deportiva

	1	X	2
	9.8	4.45	1.27
	9.9	4.85	1.28
	9.78	4.7	1.3
	11	4.33	1.29
	9.65	4.6	1.28
	10	4.75	1.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.02 ↑ (7.34)	4.61 ↑ (4.1)	1.28 ↓ (1.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Felanitx
9.1%

Draw
19.7%

Peña Deportiva
71.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.3%

22%

65.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.9%

21.4%

67.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Felanitx has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Peña Deportiva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Peña Deportiva's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Felanitx than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peña Deportiva than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Felanitx - Peña Deportiva Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Muntaner B. ⚽,
15', 2 - 0, Vinicius Amorim ⚽,
24', 2 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
90+7', 3 - 1, ⚽,
90+8', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 11 (Play Offs: )).

Recent form of Felanitx has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Peña Deportiva is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Felanitx may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Peña Deportiva is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Felanitx won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 1:3).

Including home match between the teams, Felanitx won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CE Felanitx
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
01.02.26	Portmany - Felanitx	2:0 ✺
24.01.26	Felanitx - Rotlet Molinar	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Collerense - Felanitx	1:2 ✺
10.01.26	Santanyí - Felanitx	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Felanitx - Son Cladera	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTWLL
- Peña Deportiva
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
25.01.26	Peña Deportiva - Portmany	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Rotlet Molinar - Peña Deportiva	1:2 ✺
13.01.26	Son Cladera - Peña Deportiva	0:2 ✺
10.01.26	Collerense - Peña Deportiva	2:2 ✺
04.01.26	Peña Deportiva - Santanyí	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
28.09.25	Peña Deportiva - Felanitx	4:1
06.10.18	Felanitx - Peña Deportiva	1:2

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