Match Info

Ukrainian Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 9 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Kolos Stadium (Kovalivka)


	Feniks-Mariupol		Zorya Luhansk

	1	X	2
	6.25	4.00	1.41
	5.5	3.5	1.58
	5.58	3.43	1.62
	5.58	3.34	1.64	Watch
	5.5	3.25	1.57
	5.19	3.43	1.68	Watch
	5.2	3.5	1.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.54 ↓ (8.6)	3.49 ↓ (4.86)	1.58 ↑ (1.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Feniks-Mariupol
16.4%

Draw
26%

Zorya Luhansk
57.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.7%

18.9%

70.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13%

15.6%

58%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Feniks-Mariupol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Feniks-Mariupol's performance.

Zorya Luhansk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Zorya Luhansk might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Feniks-Mariupol than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zorya Luhansk than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Feniks Mariupol - Zorya Luhansk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zhupanskyi V. (G) 33. Sydorenko V. (C) 20. Nikolyshyn O. 97. Gerega O. 15. Chornomorets O. 11. Kucherov V. 6. Gunichev Y. 5. Khakhlyov O. 17. Maletsky P. 96. Synytsya O. 14. Grytsak N.	23. Karavashchenko l. (G) 40. Italo Henrique 5. Janjic A. 8. Dryshlyuk K. 10. Juninho 18. Boyko M. 77. Kushnirenko B. 6. Popara D. 14. Glushchenko A. 9. Slesar A. 11. Gorbach I.
Substitutes
2. Gagun R. 7. Kovalyuk R. 9. Kyslenko S. 10. Orikhovskyi P. 12. Oryshchak S. (G) 29. Remenyak A. 3. Sydorenko D. 21. Tsyurpalevych-Semochko K.	88. Bah S. 21. Basic J. 28. Budkivskyi P. 4. Eskinja G. 27. Jelavic D. 55. Jordan 31. Kosivskyi V. (G) 3. Kravets V. 39. Machelyuk A. 30. Nesterenko I. 44. Perduta I. 1. Saputin O. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Italo Henrique 🟨,
24', Grytsak N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
53', 0 - 1, Gorbach I. ⚽,
58', Grytsak N. ↓, Kyslenko S. ↑,
58', Khakhlyov O. ↓, Remenyak A. ↑,
65', Popara D. ↓, Nesterenko I. ↑,
65', Glushchenko A. ↓, Budkivskyi P. ↑,
70', 0 - 2, Budkivskyi P. ⚽,
73', Kucherov V. ↓, Gagun R. ↑,

Preview

Feniks-Mariupol is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Zorya has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Zorya may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Zorya is the obvious favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Feniks-Mariupol won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Including home match between the teams, Feniks-Mariupol won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Feniks-Mariupol
Ukrainian Persha Liga
05.09.26	Feniks-Mariupol - Kulykiv-Bilka	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Lokomotyv Kyiv - Feniks-Mariupol	1:3 ✺
Ukrainian Cup
20.08.26	Dinaz Vyshgorod - Feniks-Mariupol	0:6 ✺
Ukrainian Persha Liga
16.08.26	Feniks-Mariupol - Kolos Kovalivka 2	3:1 ✺
09.08.26	Feniks-Mariupol - Poltava	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TWWWL
- Zorya Luhansk
Ukrainian Premier League
06.09.26	Veres Rivne - Zorya Luhansk	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Zorya Luhansk - Kharkiv	0:3 ✺
Ukrainian Cup
22.08.26	Skala 1911 - Zorya Luhansk	0:6 ✺
Ukrainian Premier League
17.08.26	Polissya Zhytomyr - Zorya Luhansk	1:2 ✺
09.08.26	Zorya Luhansk - Kryvbas	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Ukrainian Cup
12.10.23	Feniks-Mariupol - Zorya Luhansk	0:1

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