Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 6

Date: 9 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Gimenez P. (Arg)


	Ferro Carril Oeste		Guillermo Brown

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.5	6
	1.63	3.4	5.25
	1.63	3.5	5.5
	1.64	3.51	6.36
	1.65	3.51	6.36
	1.65	3.4	5.5
	1.65	3.45	5.47
	1.65	3.45	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.86)	3.47 ↑ (3.17)	5.73 ↑ (4.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferro Carril Oeste
56.8%

Draw
26.9%

Guillermo Brown
16.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

29.3%

21%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

28.9%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferro Carril Oeste has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ferro Carril Oeste's performance.

Guillermo Brown has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferro Carril Oeste than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ferro Carril Oeste that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guillermo Brown than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Ferro Carril Oeste - Guillermo Brown Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Saracho R. (G) 4. Arena N. 2. Diaz G. 6. Boolsen P. 3. Di Lena F. 8. Mussis F. 5. Perez A. 10. Blanco R. 11. Gomez N. 7. Retamar K. 9. Levato M.	1. Giovini S. (G) 4. Torres F. 2. Bazzana N. 6. Riquelme R. D. 3. Gorgerino C. 8. Funes F. 5. Marin F. 10. Luayza M. 11. Fernandez M. 7. Machado C. 20. Sandoval H.
Coaches
Cordon J. L.	Lemos L.

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 and 16).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ferro Carril won 2.

Ferro Carril is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Guillermo Brown is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Ferro Carril is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Ferro Carril won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 12-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Ferro Carril won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferro Carril Oeste
Argentinian Primera Nacional
03.03.24	San Martín de San Juan - Ferro Carril Oeste	3:2 ✺
24.02.24	Ferro Carril Oeste - Arsenal Sarandí	1:1 ✺
18.02.24	San Martín de Tucumán - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:2 ✺
09.02.24	Ferro Carril Oeste - Chacarita Juniors	0:2 ✺
03.02.24	Estudiantes de Caseros - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LTWLL
- Guillermo Brown
Argentinian Primera Nacional
03.03.24	Guillermo Brown - Deportivo Maipú	1:1 ✺
25.02.24	Gimnasia Jujuy - Guillermo Brown	1:0 ✺
18.02.24	Guillermo Brown - Güemes	1:0 ✺
11.02.24	Alvarado - Guillermo Brown	2:1 ✺
04.02.24	Guillermo Brown - Racing de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
16.05.22	Ferro Carril Oeste - Guillermo Brown	1:0
25.09.21	Ferro Carril Oeste - Guillermo Brown	0:0
16.05.21	Guillermo Brown - Ferro Carril Oeste	3:1
29.09.19	Guillermo Brown - Ferro Carril Oeste	2:0
01.09.18	Ferro Carril Oeste - Guillermo Brown	2:0
05.11.17	Guillermo Brown - Ferro Carril Oeste	3:0
12.07.17	Ferro Carril Oeste - Guillermo Brown	1:2

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