Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 3

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Fonte Luminosa (Araraquara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping


	Ferroviária		Brusque

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.68	3.25	4.60
	1.74	3.25	4.40	Watch
	1.72	3.47	5.39
	1.78	3.41	4.67	Watch
	1.63	3.40	5.30
	1.71	3.42	5.18
	1.72	3.20	4.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.7)	3.34 ↑ (3.25)	4.85 ↑ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
53.6%

Draw
27.5%

Brusque
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

27.8%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7%

27.5%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Brusque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Ferroviária - Brusque Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Denis Junior (G) 10. Albano (C) 8. Alencar 29. Eduardo Oliveira 22. Felipe Rodrigues 13. Gustavo Medina 77. Juninho 99. Maranhao 18. Rafael Carillho 11. Vitor Barreto 40. Ze Vitor	1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 17. Adrianinho 8. Ariel 5. Bernardo 4. Cipriano 7. Gazao 2. Jeferson (C) 3. Joao Maistro 10. Joao Pedro 9. Marlyson 6. Raimar
Substitutes
21. Alan Stence 44. Carlao 9. Denilson Silva 36. Douglas Skilo 12. Fabio Rampi (G) 7. Fau 27. Igor Henrique 2. Lucas Rodrigues 6. Rhuan 5. Ricardinho 23. Schilling Arthur 19. Thiago M.	20. Alex Paulino 18. Clinton 16. Davi Gabriel 19. Macario 12. Paulo Gianezini (G) 15. Pedro Martins 22. Pedro Medeiros 11. Petterson Novaes 14. Rafael Milhorim 21. Renan 13. Ryan Santos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', Gazao 🟨,
23', Rafael Carillho 🟨,
26', Gustavo Medina ↓, Carlao ↑,
28', Cipriano 🟨,
30', Joao Pedro 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Maranhao ⚽,
43', Alencar 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 1, Marlyson ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
56', Joao Pedro ↓, Petterson Novaes ↑,
56', Felipe Rodrigues ↓, Lucas Rodrigues ↑,
56', Alencar ↓, Igor Henrique ↑,
59', 1 - 2, Cipriano ⚽,
64', Juninho 🟨,
65', Adrianinho ↓, Clinton ↑,
65', Gazao ↓, Pedro Martins ↑,
66', Rafael Carillho ↓, Alan Stence ↑,
67', Juninho ↓, Thiago M. ↑,
71', Marlyson ↓, Macario ↑,
71', Joao Maistro ↓, Rafael Milhorim ↑,
77', Petterson Novaes 🟨,
77', Alan Stence 🟨,
86', 🟨,
86', Albano 🟨,
86', Carlao 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 2, Pedro Martins (Own goal),
90+8', 3 - 2, Vitor Barreto ⚽,

Preview

Currently, both sides are showing commendable stability on the pitch.

Brusque may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Ferroviária is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Ferroviária has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:0.

Specifically in home fixtures for Ferroviária against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 1:0 goals.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Ferroviaria: 23.95% Brusque: 10.48%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie C
13.09.26	Ferroviária - Paysandu	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Internacional de Limeira - Ferroviária	3:3 ✺
29.08.26	Ferroviária - Confiança	1:0 ✺
23.08.26	Ypiranga - Ferroviária	1:0 ✺
17.08.26	Ferroviária - Paysandu	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WTWLW
- Brusque FC
Brazilian Serie C
13.09.26	Brusque - Internacional de Limeira	2:2 ✺
07.09.26	Paysandu - Brusque	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Guarani - Brusque	2:2 ✺
23.08.26	Brusque - Amazonas	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Brusque - Internacional de Limeira	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.4 TWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
17.05.26	Ferroviária - Brusque	1:0

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