Match Info

Persian Gulf Pro League - Round 12

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Foolad Arena (Ahvaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Iran	Khozestan TV


	Foolad Khuzestan		Aluminium Arak

	1	X	2
	2.12	2.58	4.35
	1.94	2.74	4.84
	2.29	2.68	3.74	Watch
	1.85	2.75	4.8
	2.09	2.57	4.32	Watch
	1.86	2.75	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.28)	2.68 ↓ (2.85)	4.47 ↑ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Foolad Khuzestan
45.3%

Draw
34.2%

Aluminium Arak
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

31.3%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.8%

30.7%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Foolad Khuzestan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Foolad Khuzestan's performance.

Aluminium Arak has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aluminium Arak might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Foolad Khuzestan than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Foolad Khuzestan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aluminium Arak than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aluminium Arak could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	22.2%	11.1%

Foolad Khuzestan - Aluminium Arak Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Foolad will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Aluminium Arak will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Foolad: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Foolad (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
81. Lak H. (G) 26. Kazemi M. 24. Qureshi M. 6. Nemati A. 2. Razzaghpour A. 20. Mazraeh Y. 11. Soleimani M. 8. Asadbeigi S. 3. Ansari S. 9. Mahrooghi E. 77. Keshavarzi M.	1. Khalifeh M. (G) 26. Norouzifard B. 41. Jorjani Y. 4. Houshmand A. 18. Ghanbari A. 2. Goudarzi B. 9. Mehdipour M. 77. Vatandoust A. 80. Kahrizi A. 11. Marzban R. 78. Jafari R.
Substitutes
14. Abbasi M. 70. Abolfazlzadeh A. 30. Akbarzadeh A. 23. Amirkhani A. 29. Bagheri A. 19. Blanco G. 68. Forouzan M. (G) 18. Muawi A. 5. Saedi A. 99. Sangargir H. 17. Sarabadani A. M.	70. Badragheh M. 90. Ezhdehakosh K. 15. Hobobati S. 10. Jahan Kohan A. 21. Khodadadian E. 13. Mahdavi M. 5. Noori A. 7. Reza Hosseini S. M. 3. Sokhtanloo A. 88. Tayefeh M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Mazraeh Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jafari R. ↓, Jahan Kohan A. ↑,
46', Mehdipour M. ↓, Noori A. ↑,
71', Ansari S. ↓, Sarabadani A. M. ↑,
75', Keshavarzi M. 🟨,
78', Soleimani M. ↓, Blanco G. ↑,
86', Keshavarzi M. ↓, Muawi A. ↑,
88', 🟨,
88', Kahrizi A. ↓, Reza Hosseini S. M. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Foolad won 2.

Foolad has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Aluminium Arak is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Foolad is seen as the favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Foolad won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Foolad won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 1.2:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Foolad Khuzestan FC
Iran Pro League
30.11.25	Esteghlal - Foolad Khuzestan	1:0 ✺
Iran Hazfi Cup
22.11.25	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Foolad Khuzestan	0:3 ✺
Iran Pro League
07.11.25	Foolad Khuzestan - Paykan	1:0 ✺
31.10.25	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Foolad Khuzestan	1:1 ✺
24.10.25	Foolad Khuzestan - Shams Azar Qazvin	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWWTL
- Aluminium Arak
Iran Pro League
29.11.25	Aluminium Arak - Fajr Sepasi	1:1 ✺
Iran Hazfi Cup
22.11.25	Aluminium Arak - Malavan	1:2 penalties ✺
Iran Pro League
07.11.25	Chadormalou Ardakan - Aluminium Arak	1:0 ✺
31.10.25	Esteghlal - Aluminium Arak	3:1 ✺
24.10.25	Aluminium Arak - Mes Rafsanjan	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Iran Pro League
14.03.25	Foolad Khuzestan - Aluminium Arak	2:0
20.10.24	Aluminium Arak - Foolad Khuzestan	4:2
01.05.24	Aluminium Arak - Foolad Khuzestan	1:1
10.11.23	Foolad Khuzestan - Aluminium Arak	1:0
18.05.23	Foolad Khuzestan - Aluminium Arak	2:2
04.01.23	Aluminium Arak - Foolad Khuzestan	0:1
13.02.22	Foolad Khuzestan - Aluminium Arak	1:0

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