Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 4

Date: 22 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: North Lodge Park (Pitmedden)


	Formartine United		Montrose

	1	X	2
	3.20	3.60	1.95
	3.25	3.40	1.93
	3.60	3.95	1.70
	3.31	3.60	2.07
	3.83	3.98	1.8	Watch
	3.25	3.40	1.98
	3.26	3.67	1.99
	3.20	3.45	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.36 ↓ (4.58)	3.63 ↓ (4.57)	1.92 ↑ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Formartine United
27.2%

Draw
25.2%

Montrose
47.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20%

20.1%

59.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.2%

20.3%

59.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Formartine United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Formartine United's performance.

Montrose has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Montrose might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Formartine United than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Formartine United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montrose than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Montrose could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Formartine United - Montrose Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Montrose will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Formartine (1.77) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Formartine (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45', 1 - 0, Wade J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
72', 2 - 0, Abari G. ⚽,
75', 3 - 0, Thomas R. ⚽,
82', 3 - 1, Clelland A. ⚽,
84', 3 - 2, Jameison C. ⚽,

Preview

In recent outings, Formartine has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Montrose is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Montrose could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Montrose for this game.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Montrose	5	3	0	2	11:7	4	9
16	Formartine Utd	5	3	0	2	11:8	3	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Formartine United
Scottish Highland League
19.09.26	Formartine United - Lossiemouth	3:0 ✺
16.09.26	Fraserburgh - Formartine United	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Clachnacuddin - Formartine United	1:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
08.09.26	Formartine United - Dundee United 2	2:3 ✺
Scottish Highland League
05.09.26	Formartine United - Nairn County	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WTTLT
- Montrose FC
Scottish League One
19.09.26	East Fife - Montrose	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Montrose - Cove Rangers	2:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
08.09.26	Montrose - Dundee 2	3:2 ✺
Scottish League One
05.09.26	Peterhead - Montrose	0:3 ✺
29.08.26	Montrose - Queen of the South	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWWWW

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