Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 11

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday


	Francavilla		Nardo

	1	X	2
	2.62	3.1	2.42
	2.71	3.20	2.43	Watch
	2.66	3.1	2.41
	2.7	3.15	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↓ (2.68)	3.14 ↓ (3.15)	2.43 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francavilla
33.9%

Draw
28.8%

Nardo
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

28.4%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

28.8%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francavilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Nardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francavilla than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nardo than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Francavilla - Nardo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
85', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 in the zone Serie D ~ Group H (Play Out: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Francavilla won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Francavilla won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Francavilla won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.8:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Francavilla
Italian Serie D - Group H
02.11.25	Città di Fasano - Francavilla	3:2 ✺
26.10.25	Francavilla - Nola	1:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
22.10.25	Francavilla - Martina Calcio	2:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie D - Group H
19.10.25	Real Normanna - Francavilla	0:0 ✺
12.10.25	Francavilla - Gravina	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LTWTL
- ACD Nardo
Italian Serie D - Group H
02.11.25	Nardo - Acerrana	4:0 ✺
26.10.25	Fidelis Andria - Nardo	0:0 ✺
19.10.25	Heraclea - Nardo	2:0 ✺
12.10.25	Nardo - Afragolese	3:0 ✺
05.10.25	Città di Fasano - Nardo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group H
02.02.25	Francavilla - Nardo	1:2
06.10.24	Nardo - Francavilla	0:0
26.02.23	Francavilla - Nardo	2:1
23.10.22	Nardo - Francavilla	2:1
03.04.22	Francavilla - Nardo	3:2
21.11.21	Nardo - Francavilla	2:3
24.01.21	Nardo - Francavilla	1:1

Francavilla - Nardo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide