Match Info

Gaucho 2 - Round 12

Date: 16 July 2025, Wednesday


	Frederiquense		Real SC

	1	X	2
	1.46	3.6	6.75
	1.5	3.45	6.5
	1.52	3.34	6.67
				Watch
	1.48	3.34	8.05
	1.43	3.58	8.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.38)	3.46 ↓ (3.8)	7.24 ↓ (9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Frederiquense
61.3%

Draw
26.2%

Real SC
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.9%

23.9%

10.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

13%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Frederiquense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Real SC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Frederiquense than the current prediction. (-25.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Frederiquense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real SC than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real SC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Frederiquense - Real SC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
78', 1 - 0, Dionas Bruno ⚽,
79', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Gaucho 3).

Frederiquense has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Real SC is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Real SC may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Frederiquense is the undisputed favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União Frederiquense de Futebol
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho 2
11.07.25	GE Bagé - Frederiquense	1:0 ✺
06.07.25	Frederiquense - Novo Hamburgo	0:0 ✺
01.07.25	Gramadense - Frederiquense	1:0 ✺
22.06.25	Passo Fundo - Frederiquense	1:0 ✺
15.06.25	Frederiquense - Santa Cruz-RS	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTLLW
- Real SC Capão da Canoa
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho 2
05.07.25	Real SC - Gramadense	0:1 ✺
24.06.25	Santa Cruz-RS - Real SC	1:0 ✺
14.06.25	Real SC - Esportivo Bento Gonçalves	1:2 ✺
11.06.25	Aimoré - Real SC	2:0 ✺
07.06.25	Real SC - Inter Santa Maria	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

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