Match Info

GERMANY: 3. LIGA - ROUND 5

Date: 2 September 2023, Saturday

Location: Dreisamstadion (Freiburg)

Referee: Winter N. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport


	Freiburg II		Rot-Weiß Essen

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.2	3.1
	2.23	3.4	2.9
	2.47	3.36	3.02
	2.35	3	2.88
	2.34	3.3	2.9	Watch
	2.3	3.15	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (1.88)	3.24 ↓ (3.45)	2.94 ↓ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg II
39.7%

Draw
28.7%

Rot-Weiß Essen
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

26.6%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

25.7%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Freiburg II's form might have worsened.

Rot-Weiß Essen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rot-Weiß Essen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg II than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Freiburg II, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rot-Weiß Essen than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rot-Weiß Essen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.6%	6.4%	83%

Freiburg II - Rot Weiß Essen Predictions

Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Freiburg II will win (votes: 5 - 10.6%). Rot-Weiß Essen will win (votes: 39 - 83%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 6.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rot-Weiß Essen: 72.3% – 93.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Uphoff B. (G) 23. Fahrner P. 13. Muller S. 25. Bichsel J. 4. Makengo J. 5. Rudlin F. 28. Johansson R. 22. Baur M. 11. Stark J. 9. Adamu J. 29. Breunig M.	1. Golz J. (C) 7. Wiegel A. 8. Harenbrock C. 10. Eisfeld T. 14. Brumme L. 23. Rios Alonso J. 24. Gotze F. 26. Musel T. 27. Sapina V. 29. Doumbouya M. 30. Young I.
Substitutes
18. Al Ghaddioui H. 6. Braun-Schumacher S. 17. Fallmann P. 21. Lee Ji-Han 8. Lienhard P. 3. Lungwitz A. 38. Mack L. (G) 30. Pellegrino G.	9. Berlinski R. 16. Kourouma M. 3. Manu A. 11. Obuz M. 6. Rother B. 2. Voelcke S. 20. Vonic L. 19. Voufack E. 35. Wienand F. (G)
Coaches
Stamm T.	Dabrowski C.

Preview

Freiburg II is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Rot-Weiß Essen is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Freiburg II will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Freiburg II won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Freiburg II won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Freiburg II
German 3 Bundesliga
26.08.23	Verl - Freiburg II	3:2 ✺
23.08.23	Freiburg II - Unterhaching	0:0 ✺
20.08.23	Borussia Dortmund II - Freiburg II	1:0 ✺
06.08.23	Freiburg II - Duisburg	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
28.07.23	Freiburg II - Hoffenheim II	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLTL
- Rot-Weiß Essen
German 3 Bundesliga
27.08.23	Rot-Weiß Essen - Preußen Münster	1:0 ✺
23.08.23	Viktoria Köln - Rot-Weiß Essen	0:0 ✺
20.08.23	Rot-Weiß Essen - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
13.08.23	Rot-Weiß Essen - Hamburger SV	3:4 ET ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
04.08.23	Hallescher - Rot-Weiß Essen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
01.04.23	Rot-Weiß Essen - Freiburg II	2:0
09.10.22	Freiburg II - Rot-Weiß Essen	0:3

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