Match Info

Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga - Round 27

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: David Petriashvili Stadium (Tbilisi)

Referee: Khorava J. (Geo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV


	Gagra		Meshakhte Tkibuli

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.00	3.10
	2.15	3.00	3.05	Watch
	2.30	3.25	3.04
	1.84	3.39	4.04	Watch
	2.20	3.20	3.00
	2.23	3.33	3.12
	2.15	3.05	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.8)	3.17 ↓ (3.6)	3.2 ↓ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gagra
42.7%

Draw
28.8%

Meshakhte Tkibuli
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

25.8%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

25.3%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gagra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gagra's form might have worsened.

Meshakhte Tkibuli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Meshakhte Tkibuli's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gagra than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gagra, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Meshakhte Tkibuli than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Meshakhte Tkibuli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gagra - Meshakhte Tkibuli Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vorobey O. (G) 40. Claudinei 14. Tchavtchanidze Z. (C) 5. Nazarov Y. 11. Zoidze S. 33. Gurchiani L. 21. Peikrishvili A. 25. Wanderson 19. Khachidze G. 30. Goshteliani G. 23. Andreychuk A.	29. Shovnadze L. (G) 23. Shubitidze B. 31. Eric Pimentel 38. Zotko I. 40. Ugrekhelidze L. 13. Burduli G. (C) 26. Gabiskiria B. 27. Kantaria G. 22. Sikalo T. 30. Pyrogov M. 9. Sikharulidze I.
Substitutes
29. Adeyeye R. 18. Bliznichenko V. 34. Chikhladze L. 3. Chochia O. 35. Dmitrievich A. (G) 13. Gobejishvili L. 9. Mujiri D. 8. Skrypnyk I. 15. Slavitski N.	24. Chkhetiani S. 16. Gegia G. 8. Jamarauli G. 7. Jijavadze E. 20. Kurdadze L. 21. Kvirkvelia G. 11. Kvirkvia M. 18. Patsatsia T. 1. Tkeshelashvili L. (G)
Coaches
Ljubenovic Z.	Chkhetiani K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Tchavtchanidze Z. ⚽, Peikrishvili A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Kantaria G. ↓, Jijavadze E. ↑,
46', Sikalo T. ↓, Kvirkvia M. ↑,
65', Burduli G. ↓, Chkhetiani S. ↑,
65', Gabiskiria B. ↓, Patsatsia T. ↑,
67', Gurchiani L. ↓, Bliznichenko V. ↑,
67', Goshteliani G. ↓, Skrypnyk I. ↑,
67', Andreychuk A. ↓, Mujiri D. ↑,
69', Peikrishvili A. 🟨,
80', Pyrogov M. ↓, Kurdadze L. ↑,
81', Khachidze G. ↓, Adeyeye R. ↑,
83', 1 - 1, Kvirkvia M. ⚽,
90', Peikrishvili A. ↓, Slavitski N. ↑,
90+3', Kurdadze L. 🟨,

Preview

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

In this matchup, Gagra is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Gagra has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:4 (averaging 1:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Gagra against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Gagra	27	6	11	10	25:37	-12	29
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	27	2	11	14	20:44	-24	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gagra FC
Georgian Erovnuli Liga
14.09.26	Dinamo Tbilisi - Gagra	4:0 ✺
10.09.26	Gagra - Torpedo Kutaisi	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Dila Gori - Gagra	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	Gagra - Iberia 1999	2:0 ✺
Georgian Cup
26.08.26	Gagra - Aragvi Dusheti	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 LTLWW
- Meshakhte Tkibuli
Georgian Erovnuli Liga
14.09.26	Meshakhte Tkibuli - Rustavi	0:1 ✺
10.09.26	Dinamo Tbilisi - Meshakhte Tkibuli	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Meshakhte Tkibuli - Spaeri	2:2 ✺
31.08.26	Torpedo Kutaisi - Meshakhte Tkibuli	0:2 ✺
21.08.26	Meshakhte Tkibuli - Dinamo Batumi	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.9 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Georgian Erovnuli Liga
18.06.26	Meshakhte Tkibuli - Gagra	1:1
27.04.26	Gagra - Meshakhte Tkibuli	1:1
Georgian Cup
20.07.25	Meshakhte Tkibuli - Gagra	2:1 ET

Gagra - Meshakhte Tkibuli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide