Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 9 March 2023, Thursday

Location: Ghelamco Arena (Gent)

Referee: Tohver K. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Belgium	RTBF
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Gent		İstanbul Başakşehir

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	4.2
	2.05	3	4
	2.05	3.1	4
	2.08	3	4.1
	2.07	3.12	4.32
	2.02	3.18	4.05
	2.08	3.1	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (2.02)	3.09 ↓ (3.45)	4.12 ↑ (3.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gent
46.2%

Draw
30.8%

İstanbul Başakşehir
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.7%

27.3%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

29.5%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gent has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

İstanbul Başakşehir has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gent than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for İstanbul Başakşehir than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.3%	15.9%	31.8%

Gent - İstanbul Başakşehir Predictions

Users Predictions: 44 users predict this event. Gent will win (votes: 23 - 52.3%). Başakşehir will win (votes: 14 - 31.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 15.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gent: 37.5% – 67.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Gent was already of knockout phase, was already of round of 16, has a good chance of qtrs (56%), has a chance of semis (23%), has a small chance of final (8%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).

Başakşehir was already of knockout phase, was already of round of 16, has a chance of qtrs (44%), has a chance of semis (16%), has a very small chance of final (5%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).

This event has quality 53, importance 41, match rating 47. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Başakşehir could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Başakşehir have a series of guest games.

Gent will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Gent: Lemajic D. (Muscle Injury) Tissoudali T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Gent: Godeau B. (Ankle Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Gent
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
05.03.23	Gent - Anderlecht	1:0 ✺
26.02.23	Club Brugge - Gent	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.02.23	Gent - Qarabağ Agdam	2:0 penalties ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
19.02.23	Gent - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.02.23	Qarabağ Agdam - Gent	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLWWL
- İstanbul Başakşehir
Turkish Super League
03.03.23	Alanyaspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:0 ✺
02.02.23	Kayserispor - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:0 ✺
29.01.23	İstanbul Başakşehir - Konyaspor	2:0 ✺
21.01.23	Kasımpaşa - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:3 ✺
Turkish Cup
18.01.23	Fatih Karagümrükspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LLWWW

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