Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 17 July 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Bolt Arena (Helsinki) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Jonasson H. M. (Ice)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Finland	19:00	HJK TV
United Kingdom	17:00	Solidsport TV


	HJK		NSÍ Runavík

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.75	5.75	Watch
	1.29	5.5	7.75
	1.4	5	6	Watch
	1.38	5.26	6.29
				Watch
	1.29	5.5	8.5
	1.39	5.47	7.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.5)	5.25 ↑ (4.63)	6.91 ↑ (4.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HJK
68.8%

Draw
17.8%

NSÍ Runavík
13.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

61.5%

20%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

19.6%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HJK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in HJK's performance.

NSÍ Runavík has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HJK than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with HJK that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for NSÍ Runavík than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that NSÍ Runavík could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.3%	20%	6.7%

HJK - NSÍ Runavík Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. HJK will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Runavík will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for HJK: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. HJK (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - Runavík (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Runavík (4.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Runavík (2.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Runavík (2.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 4.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. HJK (votes: 2 - 25%). Runavík (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Nijhuis T. (G) 2. Lyons-Foster B. 3. Antzoulas G. 6. Tikkanen V. 27. Kouassivi-Benissan K. 8. Kanellopoulos G. 4. Ring A. (C) 10. Lingman L. 99. Michel B. 20. Pukki T. 21. Mentu P.	1. Joensen K. (G) 17. Benjaminsen J. 4. Obbekjaer D. 3. Markmanrud L. 13. Ness F. O. 8. Hendriksson B. 33. Przybylski M. 29. Joensen E. W. 27. Knudsen A. 10. Olsen K. (C) 11. van Der Heyden J.
Substitutes
95. Baranov S. 24. Boamah M. 49. Hannula O. 16. Henriksson E. (G) 7. Hostikka S. 42. Meriluoto K. 1. Ost J. (G) 13. Simojoki K. 28. Ylitolva M.	28. Danielsen M. 5. Diaby H. 24. Hansen B. 30. Hansen S. (G) 15. Hentze P. 43. Jablinski K. 16. Knudsen P. 19. Knudsen T. 6. Nolsoe B. 23. Olsen B. 2. Osen H. 25. Thomsen J. (G)
Coaches
Nuutinen M.	Wedeborg J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Ness F. O. 🟥,
18', 1 - 0, Lingman L. ⚽, Michel B. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Przybylski M. ↓, Diaby H. ↑,
46', Kouassivi-Benissan K. ↓, Hostikka S. ↑,
53', 2 - 0, Ring A. ⚽, Lingman L. (A),
59', Lyons-Foster B. ↓, Ylitolva M. ↑,
59', Kanellopoulos G. ↓, Meriluoto K. ↑,
68', van Der Heyden J. ↓, Nolsoe B. ↑,
79', 3 - 0, Hostikka S. ⚽, Mentu P. (A),
85', Joensen E. W. ↓, Osen H. ↑,
90+4', 4 - 0, Antzoulas G. ⚽, Ring A. (A),
90+5', Joensen K. 🟨,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
93', 5 - 0, Hostikka S. ⚽,
97', Pukki T. ↓, Simojoki K. ↑,
100', Diaby H. 🟨,
104', Lingman L. ↓, Boamah M. ↑,
105+2', Michel B. 🟨,
107', Tikkanen V. ↓, Hannula O. ↑,
109', Hostikka S. 🟨,
109', Osen H. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-4. 2nd leg.

In recent matches, HJK has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Runavík is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, HJK has had a series of away games.

In this match, HJK is the obvious favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, HJK won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HJK Helsinki
UEFA Europa Conference League
10.07.25	NSÍ Runavík - HJK	4:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
05.07.25	VPS Vaasa - HJK	0:2 ✺
02.07.25	HJK - FF Jaro	2:3 ✺
27.06.25	KuPS Kuopio - HJK	3:0 ✺
Finnish Cup
24.06.25	Klubi 04 - HJK	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWLLW
- NSÍ Runavík
UEFA Europa Conference League
10.07.25	NSÍ Runavík - HJK	4:0 ✺
Faroe Islands Premier League
05.07.25	Tvøroyrar Bóltfelag - NSÍ Runavík	2:6 ✺
29.06.25	NSÍ Runavík - EB Streymur	4:0 ✺
22.06.25	NSÍ Runavík - Víkingur Gøta	1:1 ✺
15.06.25	B36 Torshavn - NSÍ Runavík	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
10.07.25	NSÍ Runavík - HJK	4:0

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