Match Info

Tweede Divisie - Round 6

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Sportpark Denoek (Hoek)


	HSV Hoek		Jong Almere City

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.60	3.20
	1.72	3.8	3.6
	1.66	4.21	3.78
	1.76	4.25	3.77	Watch
	1.62	4.1	3.7
	1.69	3.94	3.79
	1.75	3.95	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.97)	3.98 ↑ (3.5)	3.64 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HSV Hoek
52.4%

Draw
22.7%

Jong Almere City
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

25.6%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

23.6%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HSV Hoek has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in HSV Hoek's performance.

Jong Almere City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HSV Hoek than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with HSV Hoek that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jong Almere City than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jong Almere City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

HSV Hoek - Jong Almere City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Standaert M. (G) 2. de Poorter R. 21. Martens G. (C) 25. Siereveld G. 5. de Nooijer Y. 14. Van Hauter R. 8. Brebels S. 18. Bouihrouchane H. 7. Hebbelinck K. 9. Boere T. 10. Aelterman N.	31. van der Mark J. (G) 42. Bos C. 36. Smit M. (C) 56. Haven M. 32. Apinsa D. 20. Kalisvaart J. 37. van Beekveld Q. 25. Ghogli I. 55. de Ruijter J. 49. de Nijs O. 54. Mulder I.
Substitutes
17. Avoki P. 11. Bostdorp M. 19. Jalloh A. 4. Ketels L. 3. Pengel J. 16. Steenpoorte M. 15. Van Daele C.	44. Abdulmahmoud S. 52. Brandt J. 59. Dors X. 38. Lenssen L. 57. Levant J. 45. Opdam L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', Boere T. 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Ghogli I. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
59', 🟨,
70', 1 - 1, ⚽,
79', 🟨,
87', 2 - 1, ⚽,
90+6', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 12th and 16th in the Tweede Divisie (Relegation)).

In recent outings, Hoek has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Jong Almere City has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Bookmakers give the edge to Hoek for this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Hoek has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:1 (averaging 3:0.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Hoek against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 4:0 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Hoek	8	2	3	3	11:13	-2	9
15	Jong Almere City	8	2	1	5	15:17	-2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HSV Hoek
Dutch Tweede Divisie
12.09.26	BVV Barendrecht - HSV Hoek	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	RKAV Volendam - HSV Hoek	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	HSV Hoek - Spakenburg	0:2 ✺
22.08.26	Katwijk - HSV Hoek	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	HSV Hoek - Koninklijke HFC	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLLTW
- Jong Almere City
Dutch Tweede Divisie
12.09.26	Jong Almere City - Spakenburg	0:3 ✺
05.09.26	Katwijk - Jong Almere City	3:2 ✺
29.08.26	Jong Almere City - Koninklijke HFC	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	HHC Hardenberg - Jong Almere City	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Jong Almere City - Rijnsburgse Boys	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Tweede Divisie
25.04.26	HSV Hoek - Jong Almere City	4:0
22.11.25	Jong Almere City - HSV Hoek	1:2

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