Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 20

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion Hartberg (Hartberg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Altmann W. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Austria	17:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 4


	Hartberg		Grazer AK

	1	X	2
	2.57	3.2	2.65	Watch
	2.68	2.98	2.78
	2.46	3.29	3.03
	2.53	3.07	3.02	Watch
	2.5	3	2.7
	2.68	3.27	2.76	Watch
	2.36	3.25	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.27)	3.15 ↑ (3.08)	2.85 ↓ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartberg
37.1%

Draw
29.9%

Grazer AK
33.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.5%

29.9%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

28.1%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartberg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Grazer AK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartberg than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hartberg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grazer AK than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Grazer AK, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	16.7%	27.8%

Hartberg - Grazer AK Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Hartberg will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). Grazer will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hartberg: 32.6% – 78.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Hartberg (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Grazer (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Hartberg (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Hartberg (votes: 3 - 75%). Grazer (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Hulsmann T. (G) 28. Heil J. (C) 18. Wilfinger F. 19. Spendlhofer L. 6. Coulibaly H. 3. Vincze D. 5. Diarra Y. 4. Markus B. 23. Kainz T. 22. Hoffmann M. 7. Havel E.	12. Stolz F. (G) 82. Owusu B. 2. Pines D. 3. Vraa-Jensen L. 6. Olesen M. 14. Italiano J. 11. Grosse M. 7. Satin M. 32. Klassen L. 22. Harakate R. 9. Maderner D. (C)
Substitutes
61. Aziz M. 79. Drew J. 30. Fridrikas L. 8. Halwachs J. 1. Helac A. (G) 33. Hennig M. 95. Kovacevic D. 2. Pazourek L. 27. Schopp K.	98. Ehmann F. (G) 28. Frieser D. 15. Graf L. 25. Hofleitner A. 10. Lichtenberger C. 1. Meierhofer J. (G) 24. Paumgartner T. 17. Schiestl T. 20. Schriebl T.
Coaches
Schmid M.	Feldhofer F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hoffmann M. ↓, Drew J. ↑,
46', Coulibaly H. ↓, Hennig M. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Wilfinger F. ⚽,
65', Spendlhofer L. 🟨,
66', Grosse M. ↓, Hofleitner A. ↑,
66', Satin M. ↓, Paumgartner T. ↑,
72', Diarra Y. 🟨,
77', Vraa-Jensen L. ↓, Lichtenberger C. ↑,
81', Kainz T. ↓, Halwachs J. ↑,
85', Paumgartner T. 🟨,
87', Diarra Y. ↓, Schopp K. ↑,
90+1', Havel E. ↓, Fridrikas L. ↑,
90+4', Italiano J. ↓, Graf L. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: ) and 11 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation Group: )).

Hartberg is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Grazer has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Hartberg: Komposch P. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Grazer: Jano Z. (Injury) Koch T. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Grazer: Italiano J. (Injury) Kreuzriegler M. (Injury) Oberleitner Y. (Inactive) Prenqi A. (Inactive)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hartberg won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 1.6:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Hartberg won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Hartberg	10	4	2	4	16:19	-3	14
8	Grazer AK	10	2	4	4	8:23	-15	10

Outrights of Austrian Bundesliga for now

Hartberg: 0.5% Grazer AK: 0.3%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TSV Hartberg
Austrian Bundesliga
14.02.26	Hartberg - Rheindorf Altach	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Rapid Wien - Hartberg	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
31.01.26	Hartberg - Lafnitz	7:0 ✺
23.01.26	Hartberg - Brinje-Grosuplje	1:0 ✺
19.01.26	Radomlje - Hartberg	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TTWWW
- Grazer AK
Austrian Bundesliga
15.02.26	Grazer AK - Red Bull Salzburg	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Wolfsberger - Grazer AK	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
31.01.26	Austria Wien - Grazer AK	2:0 ✺
24.01.26	Grazer AK - ASK Voitsberg	5:1 ✺
21.01.26	Radomlje - Grazer AK	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 TTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Bundesliga
18.10.25	Grazer AK - Hartberg	0:0
25.04.25	Hartberg - Grazer AK	1:1
22.04.25	Grazer AK - Hartberg	0:3
08.12.24	Grazer AK - Hartberg	0:3
31.08.24	Hartberg - Grazer AK	1:1

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