Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 10

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Merkur-Arena (Graz)

Referee: Talic A. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 4
Germany	Sky Go Germany
World	Onefootball


	Grazer AK		Hartberg

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.05	2.25	Watch
	3.05	3.05	2.38
	3.28	3.16	2.42
	2.88	2.98	2.63	Watch
	3.07	3.08	2.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 ↑ (2.52)	3.06 ↓ (3.2)	2.42 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grazer AK
30.3%

Draw
30.7%

Hartberg
39%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

29.3%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

28.6%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grazer AK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grazer AK's form might have worsened.

Hartberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hartberg's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grazer AK than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grazer AK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartberg than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hartberg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	18.7%	62.5%

Grazer AK - Hartberg Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Grazer will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Hartberg will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hartberg: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Grazer (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Meierhofer J. (G) 27. Oberleitner Y. 2. Pines D. 82. Owusu B. 28. Frieser D. 8. Koch T. (C) 7. Satin M. 14. Italiano J. 22. Harakate R. 11. Cipot T. 18. Jano Z.	40. Hulsmann T. (G) 11. Fillafer M. 3. Vincze D. 18. Wilfinger F. 19. Spendlhofer L. 33. Hennig M. 28. Heil J. (C) 4. Markus B. 23. Kainz T. 22. Hoffmann M. 7. Havel E.
Substitutes
98. Ehmann F. (G) 6. Fofana S. 15. Graf L. 4. Kreuzriegler M. 10. Lichtenberger C. 9. Maderner D. 24. Paumgartner T. 17. Schiestl T. 20. Schriebl T.	20. Bratschko P. 6. Coulibaly H. 16. Golles J. 8. Halwachs J. 1. Helac A. (G) 17. Karner J. 77. Korherr D. 95. Kovacevic D. 10. Prokop D.
Coaches
Feldhofer F.	Schmid M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Fillafer M. 🟨,
11', Harakate R. 🟨,
31', Oberleitner Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
69', Jano Z. ↓, Lichtenberger C. ↑,
69', Cipot T. ↓, Maderner D. ↑,
72', Kainz T. 🟨,
82', Italiano J. ↓, Schiestl T. ↑,
82', Satin M. ↓, Schriebl T. ↑,
90+1', Havel E. ↓, Korherr D. ↑,
90+1', Koch T. ↓, Fofana S. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 12 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation Group: ) and 7 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation Group: )).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Hartberg: Drew J. (Back Injury) Komposch P. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Hartberg: Fridrikas L. (Concussion)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Grazer won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:8. (average 0.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Grazer won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:6. (average 0:3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grazer AK
Austrian Bundesliga
04.10.25	Grazer AK - Wolfsberger	1:3 ✺
27.09.25	Ried - Grazer AK	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Grazer AK - Rapid Wien	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Blau-Weiss Linz - Grazer AK	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
04.09.25	Grazer AK - Austria Klagenfurt	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LTTLW
- TSV Hartberg
Austrian Bundesliga
05.10.25	LASK Linz - Hartberg	3:3 ✺
28.09.25	Sturm Graz - Hartberg	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Hartberg - Wolfsberger	2:2 ✺
14.09.25	Ried - Hartberg	0:2 ✺
31.08.25	Hartberg - Rapid Wien	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Bundesliga
25.04.25	Hartberg - Grazer AK	1:1
22.04.25	Grazer AK - Hartberg	0:3
08.12.24	Grazer AK - Hartberg	0:3
31.08.24	Hartberg - Grazer AK	1:1

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