Match Info

Date: 18 December 2021, Saturday


	Homberg		Sportfreunde Lotte

	1	X	2
	2.37	3.3	2.55
	2.25	3.3	2.85
	2.33	3.35	2.75
	2.44	3.36	2.8
	2.35	3.2	2.7
	2.38	3.48	2.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.37)	3.33 ↓ (3.45)	2.75 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Homberg
39%

Draw
27.6%

Sportfreunde Lotte
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

26%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

19.2%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Homberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Sportfreunde Lotte has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Homberg than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Homberg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportfreunde Lotte than the current prediction. (+15.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sportfreunde Lotte could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Homberg - Sportfreunde Lotte Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Homberg has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Sportfreunde Lotte is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Homberg won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Homberg won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfB Homberg
German Regionalliga West
11.12.21	Borussia Mönchengladbach II - Homberg	2:0 ✺
27.11.21	Homberg - Köln II	1:3 ✺
20.11.21	Wiedenbrück - Homberg	3:0 ✺
13.11.21	Homberg - Uerdingen	1:1 ✺
06.11.21	Rot-Weiß Oberhausen - Homberg	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL
- Sportfreunde Lotte
German Regionalliga West
14.12.21	Sportfreunde Lotte - Fortuna Düsseldorf II	3:1 ✺
27.11.21	Wuppertal - Sportfreunde Lotte	2:1 ✺
21.11.21	Sportfreunde Lotte - Straelen	1:2 ✺
13.11.21	Rot-Weiß Essen - Sportfreunde Lotte	3:1 ✺
10.11.21	Sportfreunde Lotte - Wiedenbrück	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

German Regionalliga West
21.08.21	Sportfreunde Lotte - Homberg	2:0
17.04.21	Homberg - Sportfreunde Lotte	3:1
14.11.20	Sportfreunde Lotte - Homberg	0:2
25.01.20	Homberg - Sportfreunde Lotte	0:3
10.08.19	Sportfreunde Lotte - Homberg	1:0

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