Match Info

Regionalliga Sudwest - Round 28

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


World	Onefootball


	Homburg		Freiberg

	1	X	2
	2.08	3.55	3
	2.13	3.6	3.25
	2.02	3.67	3.14
	2.05	3.3	3.1
	2.01	3.4	3.23
	2.35	3.57	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.37)	3.52 ↓ (3.56)	3.04 ↑ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Homburg
43.6%

Draw
26.1%

Freiberg
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

25.6%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

26.1%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Homburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Homburg's performance.

Freiberg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Freiberg might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Homburg than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiberg than the current prediction. (+5%)

Homburg - Freiberg Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
73', 1 - 0, El Helwe H. ⚽,
76', 1 - 1, Polauke P. ⚽,
88', 2 - 1, Inanoglu K. ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 and 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Homburg won 1.

Homburg is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Freiberg is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Homburg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Freiberg has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Homburg won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Homburg won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 2:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Freiberg	10	5	5	0	26:11	15	20
7	FC 08 Homburg	10	4	3	3	13:13	0	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC 08 Homburg
German Regionalliga Sudwest
04.04.26	Schott Mainz - Homburg	0:7 ✺
28.03.26	Sonnenhof Großaspach - Homburg	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Homburg - Mainz II	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	TSV Steinbach Haiger - Homburg	1:4 ✺
08.03.26	Homburg - Kickers Offenbach	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWLWT
- SGV Freiberg
German Regionalliga Sudwest
06.04.26	Freiberg - Stuttgarter Kickers	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Freiberg - Kickers Offenbach	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Bahlinger - Freiberg	2:2 ✺
07.03.26	Freiberg - Astoria Walldorf	2:0 ✺
03.03.26	Freiberg - Eintracht Trier	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

German Regionalliga Sudwest
04.10.25	Freiberg - Homburg	1:2
25.04.25	Homburg - Freiberg	1:2
26.10.24	Freiberg - Homburg	1:0
03.04.24	Homburg - Freiberg	0:3
30.09.23	Freiberg - Homburg	2:1
10.12.22	Homburg - Freiberg	5:1
20.08.22	Freiberg - Homburg	2:0

Upcoming Matches