Match Info

Date: 5 May 2021, Wednesday


	Independente		Castanhal

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.95	2.5
	2.85	3	2.35
	2.85	3.1	2.3
	2.84	3.18	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↑ (2.5)	3.06 ↑ (3)	2.38 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independente
32.3%

Draw
29.7%

Castanhal
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

29.9%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

21.6%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Castanhal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independente than the current prediction. (+17.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independente, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castanhal than the current prediction. (-13.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Castanhal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Independente - Castanhal Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-1.

Recent matches Independente is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Castanhal is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Independente could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Independente won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independente AC
Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
02.05.21	Castanhal - Independente	1:1 ✺
20.04.21	Independente - Paysandu	0:1 ✺
16.04.21	Independente - Carajás	2:0 ✺
08.04.21	Remo - Independente	2:2 ✺
03.04.21	Independente - Bragantino do Pará	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TLWTT
- Castanhal EC
Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
02.05.21	Castanhal - Independente	1:1 ✺
21.04.21	Remo - Castanhal	2:1 ✺
10.04.21	Castanhal - Bragantino do Pará	1:1 ✺
06.04.21	Tapajós - Castanhal	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
17.03.21	Castanhal - Volta Redonda	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
02.05.21	Castanhal - Independente	1:1
04.08.20	Castanhal - Independente	2:1
19.01.19	Castanhal - Independente	1:2

Independente - Castanhal: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide