Match Info

ASIA: AFC CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - ROUND 1

Date: 19 September 2023, Tuesday

Location: Pamir Stadium (Dushanbe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub
Serbia	SportKlub
Ukraine	Sport 1


	Istiklol Dushanbe		Al Duhail

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	5	4	1.62	Watch
	5.16	4.2	1.62
	4.8	4	1.55
	5.2	4.1	1.61	Watch
	4.7	4	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.97 ↓ (5.98)	4.06 ↓ (4.27)	1.6 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Istiklol Dushanbe
18.8%

Draw
23%

Al Duhail
58.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.7%

22%

62.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.1%

22.9%

64.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Istiklol Dushanbe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Al Duhail has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Istiklol Dushanbe than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al Duhail than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al Duhail could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	12.5%	62.5%

Istiklol Dushanbe - Al Duhail Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Istiklol will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Al Duhail will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Al Duhail: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Yatimov R. (G) 33. Novoselec I. 27. Gogoua A. 4. Kartashyan A. 3. Islomov T. 21. Dzhalilov R. 13. Kamolov A. 10. Dzhalilov A. (C) 17. Panshanbe E. 8. Beganovic D. 12. Sebai S.	1. Zakaria S. (G) 2. Musa M. 35. Semedo R. 4. Aymen Y. 18. Sultan Al-Brake 22. Bamba I. 33. Kim Moon-Hwan 23. Madibo A. O. 7. Mohammad I. 11. Almoez Ali (C) 29. Muntari M.
Substitutes
18. Bahrizoda P. 14. Irgashev S. 23. Karomatullozoda A. 99. Khasanov M. (G) 22. Moghtadaei M. 19. Nazarov A. 5. Qurbonov S. 11. Shervoni M. 70. Sulaymonov S.	17. Abdulrahman Fahmi Moustafa 28. Al Abdulla R. 3. Al Naemi M. 21. Amer F. 99. Ellethy S. (G) 19. Lihadji I. 8. Luiz 16. Mohamad Hassan A. 6. Mohammed K. 13. Saeed Ibrahim M. (G)
Coaches
Cherevchenko I.	Crespo H.

Preview

Istiklol is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Al Duhail is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Al Duhail could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Istiklol have a series of guest games.

In this match Al Duhail is indisputable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Istiklol Dushanbe
Tajik League
10.09.23	CSKA-Pomir - Istiklol Dushanbe	0:0 ✺
17.08.23	Khujand - Istiklol Dushanbe	0:2 ✺
13.08.23	Fayzkand - Istiklol Dushanbe	1:2 ✺
08.08.23	Istiklol Dushanbe - Regar-TadAZ	5:0 ✺
04.08.23	Kuktosh Rudaki - Istiklol Dushanbe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TWWWT
- Al Duhail
Qatar QFA Cup
14.09.23	Al Duhail - Al Bidda	2:2 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
10.09.23	Al Duhail - Al-Shamal	2:1 ✺
Qatar QFA Cup
05.09.23	Al-Markhiya - Al Duhail	3:1 ✺
Qatar QSL
02.09.23	Al-Arabi Doha - Al Duhail	3:3 ✺
25.08.23	Al Duhail - Muaither	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TWLTW

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