Match Info

Prva NL - Round 7

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: NK Jadran (Luka Ploce)


	Jadran Luka Ploče		Kustošija

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.40	3.90
	1.75	3.30	4.00
	1.86	3.18	4.40
	2	3.36	3.38	Watch
	1.84	3.00	4.35
	1.84	3.57	4.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 (1.84)	3.3 ↓ (3.54)	4.02 ↑ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jadran Luka Ploče
49.6%

Draw
27.7%

Kustošija
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.6%

25.8%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

25.1%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Jadran Luka Ploče have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Kustošija has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jadran Luka Ploče than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kustošija than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Jadran Luka Ploče - Kustošija Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kesina I. (G) 19. Herceg T. 6. Karacic D. 10. Maric M. 9. Maric N. (C) 11. Matanovic L. 2. Miletic L. 16. Milicevic I. 77. Petrovic L. 47. Zilic R. 23. Zrnic P.	1. Prslja L. (G) 55. Graf I. (C) 8. Jurak L. 5. Kulenovic T. 3. Markanovic F. 19. Nwachukwu P. O. 25. Sopic S. 88. Sunjic N. 13. Vuckovic M. 7. Zabec D. 17. Zalazar M.
Substitutes
17. Antunovic K. 80. Bartulic J. (G) 27. Garic N. 14. Granic K. 7. Peric A. 20. Rodin N. 5. Silic R. 74. Spahic E. 4. Taslak K.	6. Dukic L. 9. Golem F. 10. Jemin N. 18. Krizmanic T. 51. Nichols J. 16. Petrosyan R. 12. Rajic A. (G) 14. Renic L. 4. Zeqiraj L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
66', 🟨,
85', 1 - 0, ⚽,
90', 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

This match features the league leader against an opponent battling near the bottom (ranked 1st in the Promotion ~ HNL and 14th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jadran Luka Ploče won 4.

Jadran Luka Ploče has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Kustošija has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Kustošija may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Jadran Luka Ploče holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Jadran Luka Ploče has recorded 5 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 14:5 (averaging 2.3:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Jadran Luka Ploče against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 9:2 goals (averaging 3:0.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Jadran LP	7	4	2	1	12:7	5	14
16	Kustosija	7	1	3	3	3:5	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jadran Luka Ploče
Croatian Prva NL
19.09.26	Vukovar 91 - Jadran Luka Ploče	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Jadran Luka Ploče - Orijent	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Bijelo Brdo - Jadran Luka Ploče	1:0 ✺
02.09.26	Jadran Luka Ploče - Dubrava	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Hrvace - Jadran Luka Ploče	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WWLTW
- NK Kustošija
Croatian Prva NL
20.09.26	Kustošija - Croatia Zmijavci	1:0 ✺
Croatian Cup
16.09.26	Kustošija - Bijelo Brdo	1:2 ✺
Croatian Prva NL
12.09.26	Cibalia - Kustošija	0:0 ✺
06.09.26	Kustošija - Dinamo II Zagreb	0:1 ✺
02.09.26	Segesta - Kustošija	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Croatian Druga NL
14.03.26	Jadran Luka Ploče - Kustošija	2:0
12.09.25	Kustošija - Jadran Luka Ploče	0:2
02.05.25	Jadran Luka Ploče - Kustošija	4:1
31.10.24	Kustošija - Jadran Luka Ploče	2:3
29.03.24	Kustošija - Jadran Luka Ploče	1:0
23.09.23	Jadran Luka Ploče - Kustošija	3:1

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