Match Info

BRAZIL: Capixaba - Round 8

Date: 18 February 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estádio do Conilon (Jaguaré)


	Jaguare		Vitória ES

	1	X	2
	4.4	3.15	1.81
	4.35	3.21	1.84
	4.56	3.26	1.78	Watch
	4.78	3.42	1.76
	4.4	3.15	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.5 ↑ (2.99)	3.24 ↑ (2.99)	1.8 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jaguare
20.5%

Draw
28.4%

Vitória ES
51.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

31.7%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jaguare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jaguare's form might have worsened.

Vitória ES has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vitória ES's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaguare than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jaguare, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória ES than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vitória ES, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Jaguare - Vitória ES Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Jaguare will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Vitória ES will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Diego (G) 19. Dougllas 11. Luan Freitas 17. Luan Miranda 13. Neguete 8. Ninho Xavier 9. Rael 10. Rosiel 18. Taua 15. Valu 6. Vitinho	12. Paulo Henrique (G) 22. Abuda (C) 2. Caio Ferraz 6. Geisandro 5. Gualberto 8. Gustavo Tonoli 11. Moura T. 7. Thiago 19. Tony 14. Victor Vellaske 23. Wendson
Substitutes
14. Adrian 23. Alan (G) 20. Diego Emanuel 5. Everson Ribeiro 12. Gustavo Baioco (G) 2. Joao Henrique 4. Kainandro 16. Leonardo 21. Luan Gabriel 7. Pablo	26. Cezini A. 20. Edinho 4. Enzo 25. Felipe Quieza 18. Foguete 9. Giovanni Carignano 13. Jairo 15. Jonata 21. Junior Vernier (G) 27. Rodriguinho 16. Thiago Magatao 17. Thiaguinho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Gualberto 🟨,
38', Taua 🟨,
40', Victor Vellaske 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Dougllas ↓, Pablo ↑,
46', Vitinho ↓, Joao Henrique ↑,
65', Abuda 🟨,
69', Moura T. ↓, Thiaguinho ↑,
72', Thiaguinho 🟨,
74', 1 - 0, Ninho Xavier (Pen),
80', Thiago ↓, Jonata ↑,
81', Everson Ribeiro ↓, Adrian ↑,
85', Victor Vellaske ↓, Edinho ↑,
85', Wendson ↓, Cezini A. ↑,
85', Gualberto ↓, Giovanni Carignano ↑,
87', Pablo 🟨,
90+2', Jonata 🟨,
90+4', Caio Ferraz 🟨,
90+6', Taua 🟨,
90+14', Pablo ↓, Luan Gabriel ↑,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation ~ Capixaba 2 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Jaguare is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Vitória ES is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Vitória ES will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Jaguare won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jaguare EC
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
11.02.25	Noroeste - Jaguare	1:1 ✺
08.02.25	Jaguare - Rio Branco-VN	0:2 ✺
05.02.25	Porto Vitória - Jaguare	3:1 ✺
02.02.25	Jaguare - Desportiva Ferroviaria	0:2 ✺
30.01.25	Nova Venécia - Jaguare	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TLLLT
- Vitória ES
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
12.02.25	Vitória ES - Capixaba SC	1:2 ✺
09.02.25	Rio Branco AC ES - Vitória ES	1:1 ✺
04.02.25	Vitória ES - Vilavelhense	4:0 ✺
01.02.25	Vitória ES - Noroeste	1:2 ✺
29.01.25	Rio Branco-VN - Vitória ES	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
24.02.24	Vitória ES - Jaguare	0:0

Jaguare - Vitória ES: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide