Match Info

NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA: GOLD CUP - PLAY OFFS - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 12 July 2023, Wednesday

Location: Allegiant Stadium (Paradise)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Netherlands	ESPN
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Viaplay


	Jamaica		Mexico

	1	X	2
	5	3.4	1.8	Watch
	4.8	3.25	1.78
	5	3.3	1.75
	5.11	3.38	1.83
	4.75	3	1.73	Watch
	4.95	3.4	1.8	Watch
	4.9	3.4	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.93 ↓ (7)	3.3 ↓ (4.59)	1.79 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jamaica
19%

Draw
28.4%

Mexico
52.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.5%

20.6%

65.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.1%

19.9%

68%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jamaica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jamaica's performance.

Mexico has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mexico might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jamaica than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jamaica that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mexico than the current prediction. (+15.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mexico could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	11.1%	72.2%

Jamaica - Mexico Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Jamaica will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). Mexico will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mexico: 51.5% – 92.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Blake A. (G) 3. Lambert K. 17. Lowe D. 6. Bernard D. 4. Bell A. 10. Reid B. 15. Latibeaudiere J. 21. Brown J. 7. Bailey L. 18. Antonio M. 12. Gray D.	13. Ochoa G. (G) 19. Sanchez J. 3. Montes C. 5. Vasquez J. 23. Gallardo J. 18. Chavez L. 7. Romo L. 15. Antuna U. 14. Sanchez E. 17. Pineda O. 20. Martin H.
Substitutes
13. Boyce-Clarke C. (G) 8. Johnson D. 20. Lawrence K. 2. Lembikisa D. 19. Mariappa A. 11. Nicholson S. 16. Parris K. 14. Richards D. 22. Russell J. 23. Waite J. (G)	10. Alvarado R. 4. Alvarez E. 2. Araujo J. 6. Arteaga G. 11. Gimenez S. 22. Guzman V. 9. Herrera J. 16. Lainez D. 12. Malagon L. (G) 21. Reyes I. 1. Rodriguez A. (G) 8. Rodriguez C.
Coaches
Hallgrimsson H.	Lozano J.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Jamaica won 1.

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Mexico could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Mexico is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Jamaica won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 7-13.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jamaica
Gold Cup
09.07.23	Guatemala - Jamaica	0:1 ✺
02.07.23	Jamaica - Saint Kitts and Nevis	5:0 ✺
28.06.23	Jamaica - Trinidad & Tobago	4:1 ✺
24.06.23	USA - Jamaica	1:1 ✺
Friendly
19.06.23	Jamaica - Jordan	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWTL
- Mexico
Gold Cup
08.07.23	Mexico - Costa Rica	2:0 ✺
02.07.23	Mexico - Qatar	0:1 ✺
29.06.23	Haiti - Mexico	1:3 ✺
25.06.23	Mexico - Honduras	4:0 ✺
CONCACAF Nations League
18.06.23	Panama - Mexico	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF Nations League
26.03.23	Mexico - Jamaica	2:2
14.06.22	Jamaica - Mexico	1:1
FIFA World Cup
27.01.22	Jamaica - Mexico	1:2
02.09.21	Mexico - Jamaica	2:1
Gold Cup
23.07.17	Mexico - Jamaica	0:1
13.07.17	Mexico - Jamaica	0:0
Copa America
09.06.16	Mexico - Jamaica	2:0

Jamaica - Mexico: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide