Match Info

Kirin Cup - Semi-finals

Date: 1 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Nissan Stadium (Yokohama) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Ecuador	05:10	Ecuador TV, TC Television, Teleamazonas
Japan	19:10	TBS, TVer
Malaysia	18:10	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Usa	06:10	Telemundo


	Japan		Ecuador

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.10	4.75	Watch
	1.57	4.33	5.00
	1.50	4.50	6.00
	1.57	4.26	5.49
	1.5	4.15	6.4
	1.55	4.15	5.45
	1.58	4.36	5.20	Watch
	1.55	4.00	4.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (2.07)	4.23 ↑ (3.3)	5.4 ↑ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Japan
60.5%

Draw
22.1%

Ecuador
17.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.9%

28.8%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Japan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Japan's performance.

Ecuador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ecuador might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Japan - Ecuador Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Japan (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Japan will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Suzuki Z. (G) Aston Villa 3. Seko A. Le Havre 4. Itakura K. B. Monchengladbach 21. Ito H. Bayern Munich 10. Doan R. (C) Eintracht Frankfurt 24. Sano K. Mainz 17. Tanaka A. Leeds 13. Nakamura K. Lyon 20. Kubo T. Real Sociedad 8. Suzuki Y. Freiburg 31. Tanimura K. Yokohama F. Marinos	1. Galindez H. (G) Huracan 21. Franco A. Atletico-MG 25. Porozo J. Club Tijuana 6. Pacho W. (C) PSG 7. Estupinan P. AC Milan 23. Mercado J. Sparta Prague 5. Alcivar J. Independiente del Valle 15. Vite P. UNAM Pumas 20. Angulo N. Sunderland 11. Arroyo K. Cruzeiro 10. Yeboah J. Venezia
Substitutes
22. Araki H. Sanfrecce Hiroshima 9. Goto K. Freiburg 23. Hayakawa T. (G) Kashima Antlers 14. Ito J. Genk 15. Kamada D. Crystal Palace 12. Kokubo L. (G) St. Truiden 11. Maeda D. Ipswich 19. Matsuki K. Southampton 32. Mochizuki H. Machida Zelvia 29. Saito S. Westerlo 28. Sano K. PSV 26. Shiogai K. Wolfsburg 7. Soma Y. Machida Zelvia 25. Suzuki J. FC Copenhagen 18. Ueda A. Lille	13. Angulo J. Sunderland 3. Caicedo F. Inter Miami 18. Castillo D. Midtjylland 19. Hurtado A. Bragantino 14. Minda A. Atletico-MG 17. Preciado A. Atletico-MG 12. Ramirez M. (G) Kifisia 24. Realpe L. Famalicao 16. Sarmiento J. Middlesbrough 2. Torres F. Internacional 8. Valencia A. Flamengo RJ 22. Valle G. (G) LDU Quito
Coaches
Moriyasu H.	Gallardo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Yeboah J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Franco A. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
46', Tanimura K. ↓, Ueda A. ↑,
67', Yeboah J. ↓, Sarmiento J. ↑,
67', Alcivar J. ↓, Castillo D. ↑,
67', Arroyo K. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
68', Suzuki Y. ↓, Suzuki J. ↑,
68', Kubo T. ↓, Ito J. ↑,
68', Doan R. ↓, Kamada D. ↑,
79', Mercado J. ↓, Valencia A. ↑,
79', Nakamura K. ↓, Soma Y. ↑,
79', Tanaka A. ↓, Maeda D. ↑,
86', Vite P. ↓, Caicedo J. ↑,
86', Angulo N. ↓, Minda A. ↑,
86', Sano K. ↓, Shiogai K. ↑,
Penalties (5 - 4)
1, Caicedo J. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Ueda A. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Minda A. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Kamada D. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Castillo D. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Ito H. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Sarmiento J. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Soma Y. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Valencia A. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Maeda D. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Japan is ranked FIFA: 17., and Ecuador is ranked FIFA: 25..

Ecuador could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Japan for this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Japan has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:1 (averaging 0.5:0.5 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Japan
Friendly
28.09.26	Japan - Venezuela	2:1 ✺
24.09.26	Japan - Uruguay	3:1 ✺
FIFA World Cup
29.06.26	Brazil - Japan	2:1 ✺
25.06.26	Japan - Sweden	1:1 ✺
21.06.26	Tunisia - Japan	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLTW
- Ecuador
Friendly
24.09.26	South Korea - Ecuador	3:0 ✺
FIFA World Cup
30.06.26	Mexico - Ecuador	2:0 ✺
25.06.26	Ecuador - Germany	2:1 ✺
20.06.26	Ecuador - Curaçao	0:0 ✺
14.06.26	Ivory Coast - Ecuador	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Friendly
27.09.22	Japan - Ecuador	0:0
Copa America
24.06.19	Ecuador - Japan	1:1

Japan - Ecuador