Match Info

Division 2 - Group 1 - Round 21

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: J.J. Ugland Stadion – Levermyr (Grimstad)


	Jerv		Notodden

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.40	5.00
	1.45	4.40	5.30
	1.45	4.55	5.96
	1.56	4.44	4.92	Watch
	1.43	4.50	5.90
	1.54	4.58	5.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.62)	4.48 ↑ (3.96)	5.35 ↑ (4.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jerv
62.2%

Draw
20.5%

Notodden
17.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

22.9%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

22%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jerv has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jerv's performance.

Notodden has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jerv than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Notodden than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Jerv - Notodden Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Gadegaard D. (G) 15. Almen M. (C) 11. Badjie K. 97. Furaha J. 3. Hultqvist D. 22. Kolve E. 17. Nordbo S. 9. Simba P. 14. Stalesen J. 20. Svendby C. 7. Syvertsen P.	1. Solas S. O. (G) 16. Bertelsen N. 20. Bjerkan B. 7. Galta J. 2. Gunnerod J. 8. Jorgensen S. 6. Larsen S. (C) 9. Leandersson E. 22. Nordbo T. 23. Ryste A. 27. Wenneberg M.
Substitutes
25. Abusdal I. 26. Isaksen P. 41. Kussl L. 5. Lillehammer F. 4. Sanchez J. 36. Seim-Monsen M. 99. Skiftenes A. (G) 42. Syvertsen M.	5. Ahmed M. 12. Bergesen J. (G) 14. Foss-Erstad T. 32. Kallestad T. 15. Rasberg S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Solas S. O. 🟨,
56', Syvertsen P. (Penalty Awarded),
57', 1 - 0, Syvertsen P. ⚽,
62', Furaha J. ↓, Syvertsen M. ↑,
73', Gunnerod J. ↓, Ahmed M. ↑,
80', Nordbo T. 🟨,
81', Nordbo T. ↓, Foss-Erstad T. ↑,
89', Badjie K. ↓, Seim-Monsen M. ↑,
89', Kolve E. ↓, Abusdal I. ↑,
90', Larsen S. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1st in the Promotion ~ OBOS~ligaen and 6th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jerv won 2.

Jerv has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Notodden have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Bookmakers give the edge to Jerv for this game.

Our forecast points to a victory for Jerv in today's match, at odds of 1.53.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Jerv has recorded 6 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 15:10 (averaging 1.4:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Jerv against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 8:4 goals (averaging 1.6:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Jerv	22	16	4	2	47:21	26	52
6	Notodden	22	10	5	7	31:20	11	35

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Jerv
Norwegian Division 2 - Group 1
19.09.26	Kvik Halden - Jerv	0:2 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
16.09.26	Jerv - Egersund	1:2 ✺
Norwegian Division 2 - Group 1
13.09.26	Jerv - Brattvåg	3:1 ✺
05.09.26	Mjøndalen - Jerv	0:3 ✺
30.08.26	Jerv - Pors	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLWWW
- Notodden
Norwegian Division 2 - Group 1
20.09.26	Notodden - Arendal	4:1 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
16.09.26	Notodden - Odd	2:3 ✺
Norwegian Division 2 - Group 1
13.09.26	Træff - Notodden	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Notodden - Lysekloster	3:0 ✺
30.08.26	Kvik Halden - Notodden	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Division 2 - Group 1
31.05.26	Notodden - Jerv	0:0
20.09.25	Jerv - Notodden	2:2
25.05.25	Notodden - Jerv	2:3
19.10.24	Jerv - Notodden	0:0
29.06.24	Notodden - Jerv	0:1
Club Friendly
07.02.20	Jerv - Notodden	2:1
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
29.09.19	Notodden - Jerv	1:1

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