Match Info

Super Lig - Round 24

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu (Istanbul)

Referee: Kayatepe A. D. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2


	Kasımpaşa		Çaykur Rizespor

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.5	2.4	Watch
	2.4	3.4	2.75
	2.84	3.21	2.43	Watch
	2.94	3.4	2.56
	2.92	3.34	2.43	Watch
	2.75	3.25	2.38
	2.86	3.57	2.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.55)	3.38 ↓ (3.46)	2.49 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kasımpaşa
34%

Draw
28%

Çaykur Rizespor
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

27.3%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

27.7%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kasımpaşa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Çaykur Rizespor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kasımpaşa than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Çaykur Rizespor than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	26.7%	6.7%

Kasımpaşa - Çaykur Rizespor Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Kasımpaşa will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Rizespor will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kasımpaşa: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kasımpaşa (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Kasımpaşa (2.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Kasımpaşa (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gianniotis A. (G) 2. Winck C. (C) 50. Rodrigo Becao 4. Arous A. 21. Frimpong G. 16. Baldursson A. F. 71. Kahveci I. C. 18. Allevinah J. 34. Diabate F. 19. Benedyczak A. 23. Tosun C.	75. Fofana Y. (G) 54. Pala M. 3. Akaydin S. 27. Sagnan M. 5. Hojer C. (C) 10. Olawoyin I. 14. Antalyali T. 20. Laci Q. 17. Mebude A. 11. Dervisoglu H. 7. Mihaila V.
Substitutes
5. Aydin E. 29. Aydin T. 9. Barasi Y. 80. Cetinkaya E. 77. Gueye P. 6. Gultekin B. 17. Kanatsizkus K. 11. Kol A. 20. Opoku N. 25. Yanar A. (G)	50. Augusto L. 18. Buljubasic M. 1. Canpolat E. (G) 4. Mocsi A. 65. Ortakaya E. 6. Papanikolaou G. 19. Pierrot F. 37. Sahin T. 9. Sowe A. 77. Zeqiri A.
Coaches
Belozoglu E.	Ucar R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Dervisoglu H. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Allevinah J. ↓, Aydin E. ↑,
55', Dervisoglu H. 🟨,
56', 0 - 2, Mihaila V. ⚽, Laci Q. (A),
58', Mihaila V. 🟨,
62', Antalyali T. ↓, Papanikolaou G. ↑,
70', Tosun C. ↓, Gueye P. ↑,
70', Benedyczak A. ↓, Kol A. ↑,
72', Mihaila V. ↓, Zeqiri A. ↑,
72', Dervisoglu H. ↓, Sowe A. ↑,
80', 0 - 3, Mebude A. ⚽,
82', Kahveci I. C. ↓, Kanatsizkus K. ↑,
85', Mebude A. ↓, Augusto L. ↑,
85', Akaydin S. ↓, Mocsi A. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ 1. Lig and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kasımpaşa won 3.

Kasımpaşa is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Rizespor has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Rizespor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kasımpaşa won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 36:26. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Kasımpaşa won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:14. (average 2.1:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Kasimpasa	7	2	4	1	8:8	0	10
10	Rizespor	7	3	1	3	7:9	-2	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kasımpaşa
Turkish Super League
23.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Kasımpaşa	1:1 ✺
16.02.26	Kasımpaşa - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:2 ✺
09.02.26	Gaziantep - Kasımpaşa	2:1 ✺
30.01.26	Kasımpaşa - Samsunspor	0:1 ✺
23.01.26	Trabzonspor - Kasımpaşa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TWLLL
- Çaykur Rizespor
Turkish Super League
20.02.26	Çaykur Rizespor - Kocaelispor	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Gençlerbirliği - Çaykur Rizespor	2:2 ✺
08.02.26	Çaykur Rizespor - Galatasaray	0:3 ✺
Turkish Cup
03.02.26	Çaykur Rizespor - Beyoglu Yeni Carsi	1:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
31.01.26	İstanbul Başakşehir - Çaykur Rizespor	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
28.09.25	Çaykur Rizespor - Kasımpaşa	1:2
09.02.25	Kasımpaşa - Çaykur Rizespor	3:2
31.08.24	Çaykur Rizespor - Kasımpaşa	0:1
18.05.24	Çaykur Rizespor - Kasımpaşa	0:0
25.12.23	Kasımpaşa - Çaykur Rizespor	2:2
12.03.22	Kasımpaşa - Çaykur Rizespor	3:1
23.10.21	Çaykur Rizespor - Kasımpaşa	2:1

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