Match Info

Ykkonen - Relegation Group

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Kalevan Urheilupuisto (Kerava)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+


	Keski-Uusimaa		Espoon Palloseura

	1	X	2
	2	3.9	2.75
	1.98	3.8	2.8
	2	3.9	2.78
	2.13	4.27	2.78
	2.12	3.97	2.81	Watch
	2.1	4.08	2.88
	2	3.85	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (1.75)	3.97 ↓ (4.05)	2.79 ↓ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Keski-Uusimaa
44.5%

Draw
22.9%

Espoon Palloseura
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

22.5%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

23.8%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Keski-Uusimaa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Keski-Uusimaa's form might have worsened.

Espoon Palloseura has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Espoon Palloseura's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keski-Uusimaa than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Keski-Uusimaa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Espoon Palloseura than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Espoon Palloseura, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Keski Uusimaa - Espoon Palloseura Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Keski-Uusimaa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hasselman N. (G) 18. Jantunen E. 19. Lokake N. 5. Makila R. (C) 31. Musa A. 4. Niemela O. 22. Norss J. 21. Rokman D. 17. Tiainen S. 15. Toivonen H. 14. Umetsu N.	30. Lehtinen L. (G) 19. Adawi O. 15. Blumme V. 21. Goshnaw A. 70. Haapiainen W. 55. Huhtamaki R. 49. Hussein A. (C) 24. Kumpulainen U. 9. Pitkanen A. 5. Saynio E. 2. Tashevci E.
Substitutes
32. Avdi E. 10. Karsama I. 3. Koivunen L. 13. Lottonen E. 11. Nenonen N. 25. Niemi O. 23. Syrjalainen A. 28. Tollinen T. 99. Voutilainen N. (G)	80. Aaltonen A. 17. Ahmed M. 10. Ambasciano M. 33. Dubova K. 4. Gustafsson V. 98. Kiiski V. 38. Ojakangas E. 8. Tella A. 1. Tuokkola V. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', Saynio E. 🟨,
36', 1 - 0, Toivonen H. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Musa A. 🟨,
56', Kumpulainen U. ↓, Gustafsson V. ↑,
56', Saynio E. ↓, Ojakangas E. ↑,
69', Huhtamaki R. ↓, Aaltonen A. ↑,
70', Goshnaw A. ↓, Tella A. ↑,
74', Lokake N. ↓, Tollinen T. ↑,
74', Jantunen E. ↓, Niemi O. ↑,
79', Hussein A. ↓, Kiiski V. ↑,
85', Kiiski V. 🟨,
88', Toivonen H. ↓, Syrjalainen A. ↑,
90+4', Avdi E. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Keski-Uusimaa won 2.

Recent form of Keski-Uusimaa has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

EPS is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Keski-Uusimaa is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Keski-Uusimaa won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:12. (average 3:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Keski-Uusimaa won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pallokerho Keski-Uusimaa
Finnish Ykkonen
26.09.25	Keski-Uusimaa - Inter Turku II	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Atlantis Helsinki - Keski-Uusimaa	3:0 ✺
13.09.25	Keski-Uusimaa - RoPS	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Keski-Uusimaa - Jazz Pori	0:5 ✺
23.08.25	Espoon Palloseura - Keski-Uusimaa	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLTLL
- Espoon Palloseura
Finnish Ykkonen
26.09.25	Jazz Pori - Espoon Palloseura	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	Espoon Palloseura - RoPS	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Inter Turku II - Espoon Palloseura	1:3 ✺
30.08.25	KuPS Akatemia - Espoon Palloseura	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Espoon Palloseura - Keski-Uusimaa	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.2 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Ykkonen
23.08.25	Espoon Palloseura - Keski-Uusimaa	4:3
14.06.25	Keski-Uusimaa - Espoon Palloseura	4:1
22.09.24	Espoon Palloseura - Keski-Uusimaa	4:5
10.08.24	Keski-Uusimaa - Espoon Palloseura	1:1
26.05.24	Espoon Palloseura - Keski-Uusimaa	2:2
Finnish Kakkonen Group A
17.10.20	Espoon Palloseura - Keski-Uusimaa	0:3

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