Match Info

Premiership - Round 4

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Rugby Park (Kilmarnock)

Referee: Walsh N. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
United-kingdom	Dundee United TV, Kilmarnock TV


	Kilmarnock		Dundee United

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.6	2.5
	2.37	3.50	2.70
	2.52	3.6	2.62	Watch
	2.55	3.76	2.72
	2.43	3.63	2.73	Watch
	2.5	3.7	2.65
	2.6	3.67	2.6	Watch
	2.55	3.7	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (2.52)	3.65 ↑ (3.45)	2.65 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kilmarnock
38%

Draw
26.1%

Dundee United
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

27.1%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

26.6%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kilmarnock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

The chances for Dundee United have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kilmarnock than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dundee United than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

Kilmarnock - Dundee United Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Kilmarnock will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Dundee Utd will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stryjek M. (G) 19. Meier J. 4. McCarthy C. 6. Deas R. 21. Schjonning-Larsen M. 20. Clescenco N. 5. O'Hara M. 18. Lowery T. 11. Kiltie G. (C) 9. Hugill J. 10. John-Jules T.	1. Walton J. (G) 23. Rawlins J. 3. Esselink B. 18. Forbes M. (C) 11. Ferry W. 26. Yoro A. 12. Agyei E. 8. Camara P. 7. Merghem M. 9. Sapsford Z. 77. Bennie D.
Substitutes
39. Bowie E. 2. Brandon J. 37. Burke C. 29. Daniels D. 12. Ferrie C. (G) 7. McKenzie R. 49. Rice B. 14. Stanger G. 15. Yfeko J.	30. Amissah J. (G) 19. Ciubotaru K. 20. Farrugia N. 6. Graham R. 4. Iovu I. 93. Metsoko I. 22. Naamo D. 21. Randall J. 15. Rose L.
Coaches
McCann N.	Goodwin J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
10', Esselink B. 🟨,
12', 0 - 1, Agyei E. ⚽, Merghem M. (A),
19', Deas R. ↓, Stanger G. ↑,
35', McCarthy C. 🟨,
36', 0 - 2, Sapsford Z. (Penalty Awarded),
38', Sapsford Z. 🟨,
41', 0 - 3, Ferry W. ⚽, Merghem M. (A),
43', Hugill J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Meier J. ↓, Brandon J. ↑,
46', Clescenco N. ↓, Daniels D. ↑,
63', Merghem M. ↓, Randall J. ↑,
63', Yoro A. ↓, Rose L. ↑,
64', O'Hara M. ↓, Rice B. ↑,
64', John-Jules T. ↓, Burke C. ↑,
69', Ferry W. 🟨,
74', Sapsford Z. ↓, Farrugia N. ↑,
77', 0 - 4, Randall J. ⚽, Ferry W. (A),
79', Bennie D. ↓, Naamo D. ↑,
90+2', Rice B. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kilmarnock won 3.

Recent performances by Kilmarnock have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Dundee Utd has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Kilmarnock may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Kilmarnock: Daniels D. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kilmarnock won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 33:22. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Kilmarnock won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:14. (average 1.9:1.1).

Outrights of Scottish Premier League for now

Dundee Utd: 0.6% Kilmarnock: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Dundee Utd	7	2	2	3	9:11	-2	8
12	Kilmarnock	7	1	2	4	6:15	-9	5

Last Results with these Odds

Kilmarnock - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 37.01%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kilmarnock FC
Scottish League Cup
14.08.26	Kilmarnock - Ayr United	3:2 ✺
Scottish Premier League
09.08.26	Kilmarnock - Celtic	1:5 ✺
02.08.26	St. Johnstone - Kilmarnock	4:3 ✺
Scottish League Cup
25.07.26	Peterhead - Kilmarnock	1:0 penalties ✺
21.07.26	Kilmarnock - Hamilton Academical	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WLLLW
- Dundee United
Scottish Premier League
22.08.26	Dundee United - Dundee	0:2 ✺
Scottish League Cup
15.08.26	Dundee United - Celtic	0:4 ✺
Scottish Premier League
09.08.26	Hearts - Dundee United	4:0 ✺
31.07.26	Dundee United - Glasgow Rangers	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.26	Salford City - Dundee United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Premier League
02.05.26	Kilmarnock - Dundee United	3:0
21.02.26	Dundee United - Kilmarnock	1:1
29.11.25	Kilmarnock - Dundee United	1:1
27.09.25	Dundee United - Kilmarnock	0:2
Scottish League Cup
17.08.25	Kilmarnock - Dundee United	2:1
Scottish Premier League
01.02.25	Kilmarnock - Dundee United	1:0
07.12.24	Dundee United - Kilmarnock	1:1

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